Why King Felix Really Is a King

In 2010, many baseball gurus and fans were irate at the end of the season. With only a 13-12 record, Felix Hernandez won his first Cy Young Award at age 24. Finishing 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th, respectively, were David Price, CC Sabathia, and Jon Lester. Price finished the year going 19-6, Sabathia at 21-7, and Lester 19-9. Even after going 19-5 with a 2.49 ERA the year before, he only finished in 2^nd place that year.

So why did Hernandez win the Cy Young?

It’s pretty simple when you look at some statistics, actually. Hernandez’s ERA was 2.27 that year, pitched an absurd 249.2 innings, and only allowed 7.0 hits per nine innings. All of those stats led the league.

Advanced statistics also favored Hernandez. His ERA+, adjusted for ballpark effects, was an absurd 174, allowed a .263 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP), and opponents’ batting average was just .210. According to Baseball Reference, his Wins Above Replacement number was 7.1, which was the best among American League pitchers.

Those statistics dominated every other team and was better than every other pitcher in the AL, even though he finished barely over .500.

From 2011 to 2013, Hernandez put up fine numbers statistically, including having an incredible perfect game in 2012, but finished 39-33 in that span. Would you believe me if I told you he’s having his best season this year?

Picture this: every stat from 2010 I told you about is better, minus innings and WAR (which will be better by the end of the season). He currently leads the AL with a 1.97 ERA, an even more absurd 189 ERA+, and allows 6.2 hits per nine innings. Currently, his WAR value is 5.7, which is 4^th best in the Majors. Don’t believe in the advanced stats? I’m sorry you think that, but his record now is 12-3. How’s that?

He’s improved slightly in those categories, but has improved greatly in many others. While his Fielded Independent Pitching was 3.04 in 2010 (which is average), his FIP this year is a league best 2.04. His WHIP has also lowered to a league best 0.877, has a great 5.81 K/BB ratio, while his BABIP is about the same.

What’s sort of weird is that his ratios have not changed much. He still maintains about a 56% ground ball ratio, slightly lowered his home run ratio, and his ground ball/fly ball ratio is slightly higher. 

What IS noticeable is that he has thrown his fastball much less (44.8% this year to 60.7% in 2010), while doubling his changeup percentage.

Fun fact: his changeup rests at almost 90 mph, and his fastball velocity is at about 93 mph. With such a great drop on it too, his changeup is almost as good as Clayton Kershaw’s 12-curve.

At only 28 years old still, it looks like Felix Hernandez will remain the King for a while now. And what’s not to like about that? If he keeps it up, it looks like he’s going to win his 2^nd Cy Young, this time without an argument.