Why the Tigers Extending Cabrera's Contract will Bite Them in the A**

Miguel Cabrera just signed a massive contract that will most likely keep him as a Detroit Tiger for the rest of his career. His extension will be the largest ever, as it will extend his current contract through at least 2023. Eight years, $248 million is guaranteed.

This is one of the worst contracts I’ve seen in the history of the sport.

First off, congrats to Miggy, because now he will be making $31 million a year no matter what happens to him. But for the Detroit Tigers – what in the world are you doing?! You are signing a guy who, yes, is the best hitter in baseball right now, but he will be 31 this season, and this extension will keep him until he is 40! He’s not going to put up the same numbers as he is right now when he is 35, let alone 40 (and there is a HUGE difference between 35 and 40).

If this contract was given to Mike Trout, it would be a great deal, especially since he’s put up historic numbers already. But for any player over the age of 29, this is absurd.

And does nobody follow the “those who cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it” in the MLB? Alex Rodriguez signed a similar contract in 2000, which was until Miggy’s the biggest contract in history, and now look at him! He has played 125+ games in only one of his past five seasons, and he won’t be playing at all in 2014. So the Yankees are paying close an average of $30 million (his salary has regressed based on the way his contract works) a year, and has put up a combined 14.8 WAR since 2009. A 14.8 WAR in five years is still ok, but putting it in Wins Above Salary, he is generating less than a win compared to others.

Or how about Albert Pujols? Signing an 8-year, $240 million deal has plagued the Angels, especially when he got hurt last season. Does nobody in that organization realize that in September and October, Cabrera was practically playing injured, and could barely run. The chances of him getting injured this year is high, making his chances of getting injured at age 35 and after is severe.

Basically, they will be paying $30 million a year for a guy who, towards the end of his career, has a high risk of getting injured, will see his batting average drop below .300, and he will be hitting much fewer extra-base hits. This will limit the Tigers from trying to spend more on other players, thus they will be playing worse and worse just because of this contract.

Look at the Yankees. They locked in guys like C.C. Sabathia, Derek Jeter, and now Ellsbury, McCann, and Beltran, so they will have these guys until they are about to retire. This has severely limited them to try and develop a farm system and have any young talent (besides Tanaka, and that’s just because they have way to much money to do it).

If all of this proves wrong and Cabrera is able to still hit 40 home runs at age 40, then he might just be the best hitter of all time. But the probability of that happening is low. But what else is the answer? The Tigers are right in the mix of contending for at least the next few years, and Cabrera’s contract would have ended in 2015, so what do you do?

Well you can clearly sign him for a smaller duration contract but with a higher pay. I think that’d be a much better thing than what they’re doing right now. But in all honesty, if he doesn’t take something like that, I wouldn’t resign him after 2015. Yes he is the best hitter right now, but at that point he would be exiting his prime, his risk of getting injured would be high, and (like we’ve seen), he would cost a boatload of money.

With the money that they have now, the Tigers should be able to find players that can replace Cabrera. I’d much rather have three good, young, and potential all-star players worth $10 million/year each than a veteran making $30 million/year, even with back-to-back MVP’s.

So Tiger fans, if Cabrera does get injured, the one person to blame would be the owner, Mike Ilitch. He is desperate to win a World Series, and this is a desperate move to keep that chance. General Manager Dave Dombrowski knows what he’s doing, and he knows how risky this deal is. But Dombrowski has learned that Ilitch will overpay for anybody he really wants, and he wants Cabrera more than anyone else he’s ever had the chance to be with.

But hey, if he does produce numbers like me, then forget this entire article. But I doubt that’s going to happen. There needs to be a salary cap in baseball to prevent things like these, but that’s a whole different story to talk about.

Will Cabrera be just as good as last year this year? Probably, pending that he does not get injured. But will he be the same when he’s 35? No, and that’s the thing that this organization must realize. Maybe they have realized it, but they just don’t want to get rid of one of the greatest hitters in Tigers’ history.

“Those who cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it.” Remember that, especially when it comes to contracts with baseball players. 

Tips and Tricks for Fantasy Baseball

Fantasy Baseball 2014 is coming up. Who should you draft? Who should you trade come the middle of the season? Here are seven big tips and tricks to pay attention to during the draft and the season.

1.   There are SO many players.

It’s not as tough as Fantasy Baseball where the first three tight ends get drafted and you’re stuck with some random player. There are at least 30 infielders at each position, plus over 90 outfielders, and a boatload of pitchers.

The only position that might be scarce is the catcher. There are two big catchers in Buster Posey and Yadier Molina, but getting a guy like Salvador Perez is just as good. That being said, that’s only three catchers.

Never get attached to a player, just because there is most likely someone who can perform just as well in a specific month. Two big examples: Jason Kipnis batted over .400 in June last year, and few people even realized. However, Justin Upton started the year batting .400, and everybody lost their minds! Kipnis finished batting .284, while Upton finished at .263. Sometimes trading a player at the end of the month is the best idea (but DO NOT trade a player like Mike Trout).

Also, add and drop players that come up. Look at who’s hot/who’s not.

2.   Switch off drafting between hitters and pitchers, hitters and pitchers, hitters and pitchers…

Don’t overstock on a certain position. Switching off between hitters and pitchers guarantees that you get some of the best of both. Plus the scoring will most likely have an even number of hitter’s stats with pitcher’s stats.

In Fantasy Baseball, having the number one pick, the middle pick, or the last pick in a snake draft is probably the best option under this philosophy. So in this case, you might be able to pick up Miguel Cabrera AND Max Scherzer.

3.   Check which statistics are being used to compete.

In Fantasy, offense is everything. So while Andrelton Simmons is one of the best shortstops out there, he’s more of a defensive specialist. Also avoid guys who have low batting average but high OBP because it’s more likely that you will only be scoring batting average.

Also make sure that none of the stats are weighted in any way. So if you have home runs and steals, they’re worth the same value in fantasy (so draft a guy like Mike Trout, Yasiel Puig, Ryan Braun, etc.). Or if you draft a guy who only hits home runs (Chris Davis or Jose Bautista), draft a guy who is really good at swiping bases (Starling Marte, Evereth Cabrera, etc.). Don’t stack up on one type of player!

4.   Avoid injury-prone and old, declining players.

Miguel Cabrera has won back to back MVP’s and is one of the best hitters we’ve ever seen, but in last September and October, he has dealt with injury that severely hurt his numbers. Troy Tulowitzki is listed as the best shortstop in fantasy, but he has not played 150+ games since 2009. The same goes with his teammate, Carlos Gonzalez, who has never had a 150+ game season.

I’d rather have a guy who plays all 162 than have a better guy with only 120. Robinson Cano is great for that, plus he’s the best second baseman anyways. So instead of picking Troy, think of picking a guy like Starlin Castro, who not only has led the NL in at-bats, but almost everybody predicts that he will get his batting average back up to at least .280.

Also watch out for guys like Hisashi Iwakuma, Aroldis Chapman, and potentially even Justin Verlander, who will start the season injured.

5.   Take your favorite team- I want the guy who can win!

Remember that other stat? Wins? Love a guy like Jordan Zimmerman, who got 19 wins last season. Also draft pitchers whose offenses are stacked, like Detroit, Boston, St. Louis, and both Los Angeles teams. Some might not put up the best ERA, but they can win, and in the long run that’s what matters.

6.   Look at K/BB ratios, avoid OPS.

It kills me to say avoid OPS, but as we mentioned before, the Fantasy league will most likely only include batting average. There will also be a K stat and a WHIP stat. Who are the two pitchers that are the best to look at with those categories? Yu Darvish and Cliff Lee. Darvish finished in first with 277 strikeouts, while Cliff has posted the best K/BB ratios in the league over the past two years.

Other relievers that can really help this are Craig Kimbrel and Koji Uehara. Kimbrel is a strikeout machine, while Uehara is the only pitcher ever to strikeout more than 100, and walk fewer than 10 batters. Uehara’s career K/BB ratio is the best all time.

7.   Pay Attention!

It’s a long season. If you get down at first, don’t give up. That being said, it takes a long time to progress, so it’s easy to just forget about it. Pick up the guys that come in the middle of the season (if you picked up Puig last season, props). Trade players. And make sure you know if your team is injured or not!

Fantasy Baseball is pretty simple, and, like all of fantasy sports, you have to keep up with it. Only then will you make it on top.

Good luck this year. Hopefully these tips will help you win that trophy!

Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns.

-Evan Boyd

MLB Power Ranks: The Top 5

It’s the Final Countdown! Check out the five best teams in baseball for the 2014 season.

5. Oakland Athletics

2013 Record: 96-66

The Athletics have always been undervalued, despite winning the division two years straight. Can they win the division again, despite having Robinson Cano and at least three other teams to compete? I think so.

Best Player: You won’t find an “all ever” player worth millions on the Athletics. However, Josh Donaldson, who is only getting paid $500K, had a better WAR than Miguel Cabrera (8.0 over 7.2), finished with a .301/.384/.499, and is one of the best defensive players in the game! He’ll be 28 this season, so numbers might go down, but I can see him putting up the same number of home runs (24 in 2013) and RBI’s (93).

Who needs to step up: Two guys: Yoenis Cespedes and Scott Kazmir. Cespedes had quite a down year from his rookie season, dropping his batting average by 50 points. He still hit more home runs, however, so as long as he can have better plate discipline, he can go back to being a .290 hitter.

Bartolo Colon had two big years with the Athletics, and now that he’s off to New York with the Mets, Oakland hopes that their new acquisition in Kazmir can replace him. With a very pitcher friendly ballpark, and a pitcher that has been known for giving up home runs, watch Kazmir be a surprise in the two spot for them.

There are no “stars” on this team, but that doesn’t matter. Even with a better Mariners team, some new additions on the Rangers, and a dangerous Angels team, I have the A’s winning the division once again.

Projected 2014 Record: 94-68

 4. Detroit Tigers

2013 Record: 93-69

You can argue that this team has the best raw talent, and were the best team in 2013, and I would not disagree. The Tigers had a chance to take a 2-0 lead against Boston in the ALCS, as Max Scherzer was retiring 23 straight, then suddenly Big Papi hits a grand slam to change the entire course of the series.

With the MVP in Miguel Cabrera, the Cy Young in Max Scherzer, and the former Cy Young in Justin Verlander, they have dangerous talent that has enough hitting and pitching to compete for the title. My one problem with them is their potential for injuries, and their age. Most of their players are in their 30’s (around 32-33 ish), so they need to win now before it’s too late.

Best Player: Cabrera. Two years in a row he’s been the MVP, even with plenty of competition with Mike Trout. With Fielder gone, he can move back to first base, meaning he can focus more on hitting, won’t be such an awful defender anymore, and he’ll be less prone to injuries (a problem he faced late in last season). If he was healthy in the playoffs, they might have won it all. And if he stays healthy this year, we might see the first three-peat MVP since Barry Bonds.

Who needs to step up: The bullpen was the biggest problem last season, and you can argue that they were the reason why they came up short to a title. Joe Nathan is the new closer, and after having an amazing 2013 season, he might be the solution like Koji Uehara was to Boston.

Detroit has added lots of talent, while losing some too. There’s no more Prince Fielder and Jhonny Peralta, but now there’s Ian Kinsler and Joe Nathan. Plus, they have a new prospect in Nick Castellanos that might be the solution to either third base or left field.

This team has an ok farm system, so if they don’t win in the next few years, it’s not the end of the world, it just means no more Miguel Cabrera. It’ll be interesting to watch this team and how the new skipper Brad Ausmus will do. They are in a pretty easy division (unless Kansas City really step it up), so I have them winning the division again.

2014 Projected Record: 94-68

3. Los Angeles Dodgers

2013 Record: 92-70

In July and August, the Dodgers were the scariest team to face, having the best records in those months, and one of the best stretches of all time. With boatloads of money and numerous amounts of talent, they might win the pennant, so long as they stay healthy. With the emergence of Yasiel Puig, they have become a team that nobody wants to play.

Best Player: Clayton Kershaw is the next Sandy Koufax. At only 26, he’s won three ERA titles, led the league in strikeouts twice, WHIP three times, ERA+ two years in a row, and has two Cy Young Awards. His movement on his 12-curve and slider are unbelievable, and finished with an ERA under 2, the first to do it since Roger Clemens did it in 2005. If they do offer him $30 million a year, I would not be mad.

Who needs to step up: Puig needs to show that he is one of the most elite players in the game without being so cocky about it, Matt Kemp, Carl Crawfod, and Josh Beckett need to be healthy, and Dan Haren and Paul Maholm need to fill the four and five spots of the rotation. If all this happens, the Dodgers have the pennant.

Here is the projected lineup for the 2014 season for the Dodgers:

1.      Yasiel Puig

2.      Carl Crawford (pending injury)

3.      Hanley Ramirez

4.      Adrian Gonzalez

5.      Matt Kemp (pending injury)

6.      Juan Uribe

7.      A.J. Ellis

8.      Dee Gordon

Plus it’ll be Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Haren, and Maholm as their five in the rotation. That’s scary. If they play like they did in July and August, they’ll win over 100 games.

Projected 2014 Record 96-66

 2. Boston Red Sox

2013 Record: 97-65

The defending champions are at number two. Everything came together for this team at the right time. They started great in April, played some .500 ball, but were in first place for 158 days last season. They dominated one of the toughest divisions in baseball, a division where all teams were over .500 at the start of July.

Best Player: I’ll say David Ortiz, just because of his absurd performance in the postseason last season. It might be the last year for Big Papi, yet he can still hit .300 and hit 20-30 home runs. Plus, his OPS will be one of the best in 2014, as he can put up a .380 OBP and a .550 Slugging percentage.

Who needs to step up: As much as I loved watching him last season, can Koji Uehara put up the same numbers as he did in 2013, as he’s now the official closer the entire season? My guess says yes, but I don’t think he can post a 1.50 ERA again (maybe 2 ERA?). He’s 39 years old, yet has one of the best, if not the best, splitters in the game. So long as he stays healthy and can go 70 innings like last year, he might be one of the best closers in the game.

Adding guys like A.J. Pierzynski and maybe having Grady Sizemore start the year will be interesting. Don’t forget they have some great prospects like Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. for this season. Bogaerts is my pick for Rookie of the Year.

Projected 2014 Record: 96-66

1. St. Louis Cardinals

2013 Record: 97-65

The St. Louis Cardinals, the NL Champs last season and World Series Champs in 2011, are my number one team. It doesn’t mean that they will automatically win the World Series now, but they have the best probability to do so, in my opinion.

With returning players like Matt Carpenter, Matt Holliday, Allen Craig, and Yadier Molina, they maintain an already dynamic offense. Plus they added Jhonny Peralta and Peter Bourjos in the offseason, so they might just have the best offense in the NL.

And how can we not mention their pitching? Adam Wainwright leads the helm again, and he’s accompanied with Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, and the young and ever-so-talented Michael Wacha. Wacha and Trevor Rosenthal have proved to be two scary pitchers to face towards the end of last season.

Best Player: Wainwright is the best pitcher, but Molina is the best overall. Molina adds so much offensively and defensively, that he’s the main reason why these pitchers can suddenly play so well so that they hit their potential. Add that, and his ability to hit over .300 while rarely striking out, and you have one of the best catchers, if not the best catcher, in the game.

Who needs to step up: Some players need to stay healthy, like Jason Motte, Allen Craig, and Jaime Garcia. Obviously they need to get healthy again. But Michael Wacha came out of nowhere and was the best pitcher in the fall, and in order for them to make a run to the World Series again, they need a guy like Wacha to step up and deliver 6 or 7 shutout innings.

The St. Louis organization has been its best in years, and they have great talent that will keep them talented for years to come. Watch prospects like Kolten Wong and Oscar Taveras make big impacts in the big leagues this year.

Projected 2014 Record: 98-64

That’s it with ranking my teams, and you can check out all of them at the menu on the right. Stay tuned as I will be giving tips and tricks for Fantasy Baseball for 2014. Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns.

-Evan Boyd

MLB Power Rankings: 10-6

After a break, let’s take a look at the top 10 teams for 2014, starting at 10-6. These teams are either winning their division, taking a wild card spot, or just missing the playoffs because just one more team is better in their league.

10. Washington Nationals

2013 Record: 86-76

Oh, the Nationals. Every scout, every baseball analyst, and frankly any writer that knows a little about baseball thought the Nationals would win the pennant last season. Some people are doing that again. Injuries plagued this team, including some to Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, among plenty of others. If they can stay healthy, they can be BIG. They do have a new skipper in Matt Williams, however, and he, like the Tigers’ new manager Brad Ausmus, have a team that can win it all, so there are high expectations.

Best Player: Did anyone not realize that Stephen Strasburg still had a good year last year? He struggled a bit early at the beginning (and by struggle, I mean have a 3.60 ERA, which is “un-Strasburg”), so he fell off the media. He had a career high in starts (30), struck out 191 in 183 innings pitched, and finished with a 3.00 ERA. Plus, he’s still only 25. I can see him going up for Cy Young this year, so long as his team can provide some power (a problem last year), he can win 15 games. That ERA will be under 3 this year.

Who needs to step up: Bryce Harper, and it’s more of a thing where he needs to stay healthy rather than performing better. The offense was the problem last year, mostly because of injuries. Harper still hit 20 home runs in 118 games, and saw average, OBP, and slugging % all go up from his Rookie of the Year season. This kid is only 21 years old. If he stays healthy and tacks on 10 more home runs, he could be MVP.

The Nationals finished with the best record in September, so can they stay hot? The division is slowly getting better, but I think they have at least a wild card spot in the bag. Watch out for guys like Jordan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth, who led the team last year, as well as Gio Gonzalez and Ian Desmond, who had great years in 2012, but struggled last season. If this team plays consistently, they are the best team in baseball.

Projected 2014 Record: 90-72

9. Tampa Bay Rays

2013 Record: 92-71

God do I love this team. The way they can get the best out of every player with no money at all – all while getting a better record than a team like the Yankees – astounds me. That being said, they still have some great players, and having David Price for (most likely) one more year, they can still make a run to the playoffs. They made an early exit to the eventual champions last season, and boy do they want to change that.

Best Player: Price, but shout outs to Evan Longoria, Rookie of the Year Wil Myers, and Ben Zobrist. We’ve seen what David Price can do. Without him, the Rays would not be in the playoffs whatsoever. Watching him in the play-in game against the Texas Rangers was one of the best pitching performances of 2013. He has it all, and is still under 30. The question is: will they trade him in the middle of the season? He is the biggest trade bait in baseball, and the Rays can get a ton out of him.

Who needs to step up: There are some new additions to this team to fill in some roles, like Ryan Hanigan from the Reds to play catcher, and Grant Balfour from the Athletics to close. Jose Molina and Fernando Rodney had good years last season, so Hanigan and Balfour need to fill those gaps. Besides them – nothing much else. If Price does get traded, then Matt Moore is the ace of this ball club, so he, of course, would have to step up to win.

With the 2013 Rookie of the Year in Wil Myers, as well as having guys who can hit from both sides, guys who can hit lefties, and guys who can hit a home run or get on base, the Rays have it all on offense. I can see them having the best OBP in the league this season.

As for pitching- it’s just as good. Of their five main starters, I can see four of them winning at least 10 games. Things will be much different with Price gone, however. They’re a team that can play just like last year, but we’ll just have to wait and see what they do.

Projected 2014 Record: 91-71

8. Atlanta Braves

2013 Record: 96-66

Atlanta at 8?! They won 96 games, Evan! Well before yesterday, I would have had them in the top 5. However, they just lost Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy for the season. Plus with a better division, they might not dominate like they did last year. Despite this, they are still really, really good. They’ve locked in some of their young players to long contracts, like Freddie Freeman and Andrelton Simmons. They are set to win.

Best Player: Freeman showed that he’s got stuff, and then there’s Craig Kimbrel, Andrelton Simmons, man it’s up for grabs. I’ll go with Kimbrel, because he is the best closer in the game. I can see him getting 50 saves again. When you know you have a win going into the 9^th, you know it’s a good sign for a team.

Who needs to step up: Dan Uggla and B.J. Upton stunk last season. Justin Upton had a great start, but then just fell off the face of the earth. Uggla and Upton cannot bat .220, or else they’ll get moved down. The Braves’ farm system is just ok, but that’s mostly because they brought up Simmons and Freeman. Uggla was not even a part of the playoffs for the Braves, and I’m sure he would like to change that. So far in Spring Training, he has been making his name out there.

Also who needs to step up is their new starting pitcher, Ervin Santana. With Medlen and Beachy out, Santana has one year to get this team into the playoffs. If he pitches poorly, they might not win the division.

Watch out for Jayson Heyward too. If he stays healthy, I can see him hitting 30 home runs. Andrelton Simmons is just fun to watch, as he’s the best defensive player in baseball. If you go to a Braves game, take a look at that shortstop, there will probably be a good play that he’ll make.

Projected 2014 Record: 92-70

7. Pittsburgh Pirates

2013 Record: 94-68

The Pirates were the best team to watch last season, making the playoffs for the first time in 20 years. It was sad to see them make an early exit in the playoffs, though. Can they repeat what they had?

Best Player: The MVP, Andrew McCutchen. He can hit, he can field, and he has the best plate discipline in baseball. It’s tough to get him out. I don’t see him winning back to back MVP’s, but I see him being their best hitter again. Watch the batting average drop, but watch him hit 30 home runs. He’s entering his age 27 season, so he’s just entering his prime season. He can only get better from here on out.

Who needs to step up: Pitchers like Francisco Liriano, Jason Grilli, and Mark Melancon really turned around last season and pitched very well. In order for them to make the playoffs again, they got to play just as well. Edison Volquez is the new pitcher in this rotation, so watch him replace AJ Burnett, and maybe even win comeback player of the year.

Starling Marte is one of the most underrated players in the game, and is the future left fielder of this team. Gerrit Cole too- he can throw 100 mph and is only 23 years old. Watch those two potentially make an all-star appearance.

This team is good, but they need to make sure that they play just as well, because it’s a matter of consistency for them than anything. But they have better hitting this year than last, and they might be top 5 in pitching, again. Stay healthy, Pirates!

Projected 2014 Record: 92-70

6. Texas Rangers

2013 Record: 91-72

Sorry, Ian Kinsler. I don’t think the Rangers are actually going to go 0-162. In fact, with Kinsler gone, they have some room with Jurickson Profar and Elvis Andrus as their middle infielders, plus added Prince Fielder for power and Shin-Soo Choo at the leadoff position. The Rangers enter September as one of the best teams in baseball- and then always screw up somehow.

Best Player: Yu Darvish. The leader in strikeouts in 2013 will do it again in 2014. Finishing in 2^nd place in the Cy Young voting, Darvish looks better than ever. Could he break the 300 mark in strikeouts? That might be pushing it, but he can come close. He and Clayton Kershaw are my two predictions for 20-game winners.

Who needs to step up: Prince Fielder, and here’s an interesting reason why. The Rangers have choked big in September and in the playoffs over the past five years. The same goes with Fielder- in the playoffs, it took him forever just to get a hit. Why would the Rangers want a guy who has sucked in the playoffs with the Tigers? I think it was more of getting rid of Kinsler for the trade, but it’s not too late. If Fielder can get his game going in the fall, so can the Rangers.

This team is very talented, but lately it’s been poorly run. Despite that, they have enough raw talent to win 90 games.

Projected 2014 Record: 92-70

Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns.

-Evan Boyd