Jose Abreu is one of the Best International Players... Which Scares Me

So who’s this Jose Abreu guy? Why is he all of the sudden destroying every team that he plays?

Actually, this is no surprise. Abreu was picked up by the Chicago White Sox this past offseason, and it might have been the best move because he is living up to the hype, AND is not that expensive to cope with. So far, Abreu has hit 10 home runs in the month of April, with 31 RBI’s, both MLB highs. Lately, he has raised his average and OPS, as he is now batting .271/.342/.626/.968, and has also struck out less (though he has still struck out 26 times).

 

So far, Abreu is becoming the best power hitter in the game. At age 27 (which is considered entering his prime years as a player), Abreu broke Albert Pujols’ record for most RBI’s for a rookie in the month of March/April.

What I love about him is that he perfectly fits the White Sox’s system. Longtime player and fan favorite Paul Konerko is retiring after this year, and signed a one-year contract this year mostly to teach the team. So who better to replace him than the Cuban slugger? Plus, with Konerko gone, they really only had one other source of power- Adam Dunn, who, though surprisingly batting .274 this year, has had a .200 batting average in his four years with the White Sox.

This is a team that finished 27^th in OBP and 25^th in slugging %, and 29^th in runs scored last season. As I mentioned with this team before the season, they would have a make or break season depending on how Abreu does.

So far for the White Sox, their offense has been in great shape, much like they were two years ago. Remember, this was a team who, despite losing 99 games last season, almost made the playoffs two years ago before choking in September. Instead of last season, Abreu has helped them score 150 runs (1^st in MLB), while putting up a .273/.336/.438 team slash line (3^rd, 5^th, and 3^rd in the MLB, respectively).

But this is really no surprise! You think Masahiro Tanaka’s 24-0, 1.27 ERA season last year was absurd? In the 2011-2012 season in Cuba, Abreu hit .394/.542/.837 with 35 home runs and 99 RBI’s. In only 87 games! Which one is better, that season, or his next season, where he batted .382/.535/.735 with 13 home runs and 36 RBI’s in just 42 games? I’d take either one in a hurry.

In the MLB, he has been on and off. At first he got off to a hot start, then cooled down. Then got back up again, then went 1-for-21. But over the past seven games, he’s been absurd, including hitting a walk-off grand slam. He already has three multi-homer games.

It’s absurd of how low he was scouted compared to a guy like Tanaka. A few teams went after him, but the White Sox offered a contract that would be the largest deal in White Sox history. He was the biggest Cuban slugger, bigger than Yasiel Puig, Yoenis Cespedes, or prospect Jorge Soler.

So why does it scare me that he is one of the best? Because other International free agents haven’t been just good, they have been absurd. Over the past three years, guys like Abreu, Puig, Cespedes, Tanaka, Hishashi Iwakuma, and Jose Fernandez. These guys are the best in the business.

Sooner or later, these Cuban hitters are becoming the strongest hitters in the game, and Japanese pitchers have done just as well. It’s tough to find raw power like Abreu anymore, so team’s really need to go out and test that market.

A couple of teams that have already done that are both Chicago teams. The Cubs signed Eloy Jimenez and Gleyber Torres, who are ranked #1 and #3, respectively, in the top 30 internationals, according to mlb.com. The White Sox signed Micker Adolfo Zapada, the #2 international prospect.

As of now, these guys are young, but they’re also cheap. There are plenty of risk factors involving that, but the way these international players have been playing, it’s worth all the money. They can turn around a team in no time (look at Puig, for example, though it wasn’t all just Puig that bounced the Dodgers back last season).

Jose Abreu has become one of the best, if not the best, power hitter in the game. Hey, he’s on track to hit at least 50 home runs this year, which I know every team wishes they had. The White Sox will continue to play about .500 because of some injuries and lack of pitching. Chris Sale is on the DL, while young up-and-coming outfielder Avisail Garcia is out for the season. This is unfortunate, but it does show signs of hope for the White Sox.

10 home runs and 31 RBI’s just in one month. The American League needs to watch out.

Your Bullpen can Make or Break Your Team

It was a heartbreaking loss for the Chicago Cubs on the 100^th anniversary of Wrigley Field, which brings me to my least favorite thing in all of baseball: blown saves.

Time and time again have I seen teams who are so talented lose because their bullpen is weak and they cannot get the job done. It is a tough job to save a game, more than people might think, but the teams that have a strong closer win games and win championships.

Look at Mariano Rivera. The guy not only has four World Series rings, but he also blew a World Series in 2001 against the Arizona Diamondbacks. However, that Game 7 would have never happened if D-Backs closer Byung-Hyun Kim didn’t blow two games before that!

But what the great thing about Rivera is that despite blowing a chance at a four-peat for the Yankees, he was able to bounce back. That’s what a closer needs to be able to do.

That, or just be really, really good. Craig Kimbrel has proven to be one of the best closers of all time already, and I think that if he keeps it up, he’ll break Rivera’s record.

Speaking of Kimbrel, the Braves had the best relief system in baseball last year, a bullpen that was even injured for part/all of the season. Their bullpen put up a team 2.46 ERA, and saved the game 77% of the time. Only two teams had a better save percentage – the Pirates and Rangers, who also have great closers.

Of the top ten teams in relief last year, their save/opportunity percentage was an average of 73.1%. The lower 10 have an average of 64%. Not as bad as one might think, but notice this too: only two of the teams in the bottom ten made the playoffs. One of them fixed their problems in the middle of the year, and the other failed to do so, and it wound up biting them in the rear. These two teams squared off in the ALCS.

Yes, the Detroit Tigers and the eventual champion Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox got off to a terrible start at the beginning of the year with relief, losing Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey. It wasn’t until late June when Koji Uehara (as I’ve wanted for years to happen) took the closing role, and put on some of the greatest numbers in history.

And oh, the Tigers. You can make a good argument that the Tigers failed to make the World Series solely because of their bullpen. Without that grand slam off David Ortiz, the Tigers would have taken a commanding 2-0 lead in the series. A few more blown leads by the bullpen to discredit such an amazing starting rotation led to them going home.

There is a reason why Uehara won the ALCS MVP award. Not only was he able to perform lights out with three saves and not allow a run, but that relief pitching for Boston embarrassed Detroit’s relief. That’s what got them to the World Series and eventually a win.

Noting pains me more than seeing a starter pitch 7 or 8 strong innings, all to be forgot because the bullpen failed to maintain their game. Jeff Samardzjia for the Cubs has a 1.53 ERA, but is winless because the bullpen has blown two of his games. The Cubs have blown four saves and have a save % of 33%, tied with the Angels for worst in baseball.

But don’t rule out set-up men, either. Guys who have to come in with runners on have a very tough job to do. But that is their job, so when they give up a hit, the runs scored are charged to the starter, not the reliever. But isn’t that their whole point of them coming in? Like saves, holds is a stat that tracks how many times a relief pitcher held the same score when they came in. So if it’s a player’s team is up 2-1 in the 8^th, and that player pitches a scoreless inning, they get a hold.

Why did the Pirates have 70 chances to save games last season? Not only because they play close games, but their set-up men are the best in the game, allowing no runs in the 7^th and 8^th so that the closer can do their job. Pirates’ reliever Mark Melancon was the best set-up men in the game last season, and he is doing just as well this time around.

Bullpen is key. If they lose a couple games here and there, then fine. But the teams that win have good bullpens, or at least a good closer. Over the past ten years, each championship team has had that go-to guy to close out the game. The 9^th inning shouldn’t be a time to panic, it should be a time to say “game over” (and yes, that is a reference to Eric Gagne’s Cy Young season in 2003).

Plus, relief systems are cheap. It’s easy to get a veteran reliever for one or two years to close out games. Look at Joe Nathan, for example. The Rangers signed him with a two year deal when he was 37, and he was able to grab 80 saves and finish with a 2.09 ERA in two seasons. It’s easy to sign a player for a short term solution when it comes to relief. I’m not saying that that’s better than having young pitching to work the 9^th, but it is a solution that has worked.

But when teams choose not to sign a top closer no matter where they are in terms of talent, it really bugs me because they have the potential to, but as a result they lose heartbreakers. So no matter where your team is in their division, just hope that they have someone who can pitch the 9^th. 

We Get It Tanaka. You're Good. Why Did You Have to Show It to the Cubs Though?

So can we just give Masahiro Tanaka the Rookie of the Year Award and maybe even Cy Young just to make the bleeding worse? He embarrassed my Cubbies yesterday, blanking them in a 3-0 victory. What got the Cubs? Tanaka was able to make a smooth transition from Japan to the MLB for one big reason: the split fingered fast ball.

Yes, it’s that split fingered fast ball that Koji Uehara employs to have so many wiffs and a 101/9 K/BB ratio, the first time anybody had more than 100 strikeouts and less than 10 walks…ever. Will Tanaka be the second? No, since he’s a starting pitcher. But as of now, his 28/2 K/BB ratio is the highest in the game.

And look at that strikeout ratio! It’s nothing compared to Felix Hernandez’s 39 (more on the King later), but it’s the highest strikeout total for a Yankee in their first three starts, passing Al Leiter with 25. According to ESPN Stats & Information, his 28 strikeouts through his first three major league games are tied for third-most since 1900, only behind JR Richard in 1971 and Stephen Strasburg in 2010. He is also the second pitcher since 1900 to start his career with at least eight K’s in the first three games, joining Strasburg in that category.

He allowed only two hits and a walk while striking out 10 for the second time in a row. Those two hits were bunts, including Anthony Rizzo’s bunt to beat the shift. He is now 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA. Here’s how he won:

1.      He threw 31 splitters, so far the most in his three starts, and Cubs were 0-10 with six strikeouts vs. his splitter. Hitters were 5-of-16 vs. the splitter in his first two starts.

2.      The Cubs were 0-for-16 (with a walk) after reaching 0-1 count. This means that he has gotten ahead of batters. His past two starts, hitters were 9-27 after an 0-1 count.

3.      He reached only two counts of three balls. He ended up with 107 pitches, but when you go eight innings anyways, that’s still pretty good.

I watched his entire performance, and it killed me every time he got a K. But his split looked good, and was able to locate his fastball well. That split needs to sink, however, and not hang. That’s what happened with his first batter, as a hanging split went for a home run, one of two that he’s given up this year.

Can he continue to pitch like this?

First off, the Cubs offense is weak. Very weak. So far, however, Tanaka has a tasted of both the AL and NL, plus his division, all by going at least seven innings to get a quality start. But I think that he can maintain a sub-3 ERA with maybe even 15 wins. Think of the stats Hiroki Kuroda has put up with the Yankees over the past two years, and apply it to Tanaka.

While last year it was the National League that had nothing but rookies that dominated the game, this time it’s the American league that has the rookie powerhouse, including Tanaka, Jose Abreu, and Xander Bogaerts. All three have been doing really well, but I think Tanaka can pull out Rookie of the Year.

Cy Young? As of now, King Felix is destroying that category, so no. And I think by the end of the year, Tanaka won’t even be in the top 5. That doesn’t mean he does not have potential to win a Cy Young though!

It was bad enough that he denied to become a Chicago Cub, but then he blanks them with 10 K’s in one of the most dominant performances I’ve seen all year? Come on, Tanaka, cut me some slack.

A Look at the Brewers' Past, Present, and Future

It’s been a great start to the baseball season, but there have been a few surprises. What’s been the shocking fact? How every team has been almost .500? Boston is in last in the AL East? Or is it how guys like Chris Colabello and Charlie Blackmon come out of nowhere and have been on fire?

Though all of those might be surprising, that’s not what I’m looking for. It’s actually dealing with the Milwaukee Brewers. As of right now, they are the best team in the MLB. Why is that?

Coming off a season where they finished 2^nd to last in the NL Central, lost their best hitter in the middle of the season due to suspension, and they could not figure anything out with pitching, especially with their relief. I’ll be honest, I was glad when my favorite teams were playing them.

But they did show signs of talent. Two guys really jumped out in terms of offensive and defensive talent: Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura. Segura played his first full major league season at age 23 last year, and finished with a .294/.329/.423 line with 44 steals, 10 triples, and a 3.5 WAR.

Gomez was even better, having the best year of his career. In his prime 27 year season, he batted just .284/.338/.506, but had 40 steals and 24 home runs with 73 RBI’s, all career highs. The best part of his game was his defensive capabilities in centerfield. He finished with a 4.6 defensive WAR, which totals to a 8.9 WAR, the highest in the MLB and second only to Mike Trout. Call him the next Torii Hunter, because he can rob home runs with ease.

So seeing these guys stand out this year isn’t much of a surprise. Gomez is batting .375 with 4 home runs already, while Segura had a rough start but has been playing hot lately. Plus, Ryan Braun is back and has 10 RBI’s already, while Aramis Ramirez leads the team with a .383 batting average. Besides new acquisition Mark Reynolds, Gomez, and Kris Davis will strike out a lot, the rest of the team won’t strike out much.

Although this team ranks 5^th in batting average (.273) and 4^th in slugging percentage (.441), it’s not their hitting that has been carrying this team. It’s actually the outburst of their pitching. Check out these stats: 1^st in ERA (1.87), 2^nd in WHIP (1.03), 2^nd in Batting Average Allowed (.204), and have 8 quality starts from their starting pitching.

Their starting pitching consists of Yovani Gallardo, Wily Peralta, Marco Estrada, Kyle Lohse, and new acquisition Matt Garza. All except Lohse have an ERA under 3, with Gallardo having a 0.96 ERA and a 2-0 record.

Gallardo struggled last year, but it wasn’t because of anything with his control or velocity. It was his mental game. He had a few personal issues last year, and it looks like that has settled now. Matt Garza, though has yet to get a win for his new team, has given them a great #2 or #3 pitcher that they haven’t had since they had CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke.

Plus, their relief has been the best in the game. Four of their relief pitchers, including Francisco Rodriguez, have yet to give up a run this season. I bet every team wish they could say that about their relief system.

What I’m saying is that much of the Brewer’s success this year is not much of a surprise. What is surprising to me is that they are 6-0 on the road, sweeping the Phillies AND the Braves. On that perfect road trip, they outscored opponents 19-0 from the 7^th inning on. Plus they are so far 2-0 against their division, and can sweep the Pirates today.

The problem with the Brewers is that their farm system is horrible. They are ranked dead last in farm system rankings, and they have only one player in the top 100 MLB prospects (though the one player, a pitcher named Jimmy Nelson, could come up this year). Plus, minus Segura, some of their guys are getting old.

This year (and possibly the next one or two) might be the last times that they have a chance to even compete.  But as long as they keep playing like this, they can look like a playoff contender. The Cardinals will probably still pull out as division champs, but the Reds have played poorly, and the Pirates do not look like the same team compared to last year. They might be able to pull out one of the two wild card spots.

This is a fun team to watch this year, and Milwaukee should be getting excited. They’re not going to continue with such an astounding pitching roster, but if their bullpen stays the same, they might finish top 5 in the MLB.

All hatred aside, having Braun back has helped and will help too. But can Gomez do just as well as last year? Same with Segura. And is Mark Reynolds still going to strike out 200 times? The answer might come in their next week, as they host St. Louis, then go on a four game road series with the Pirates.

Soon the Cardinals and Cubs will be rocking the division, with the Pirates being just as good as well. This has to be the year for the Brewers, and as of now, they got a shot.