The Yankees Pull Out with Tanaka, Leaving the Rest with Questions

The Tanaka race is over. The Japanese star is going to be a Yankee.

Tanaka’s deal is worth $155 million over seven years, with an opt-out clause after the fourth year, not to mention the $20 million posting fee that they had to use under the new posting fee. It is the 5^th largest pitching signing in MLB history, trailing Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, and C.C. Sabathia.

Not only is it such a large pitching contract, but it also makes the Yankees blow past the $189 million luxury tax, something that the Yankees wanted to keep under.

Tanaka, 25, went 24-0 with a 1.27 ERA with the Rakuten Golden Eagles in Japan last season, and has gone 99-35 with a 2.30 ERA and 1,238 strikeouts in 175 games in his career. Tanaka is considered a top starter, and might just be the next ace in the Bronx.

With this signing, not only does it leave the other teams interested in a hole, but it completes a successful offseason for New York. There are some plus sides to this, and of course, there are some minuses.

First off, Tanaka adds to an old and struggling pitching staff not only for next year, but for the next seven. Sabathia, whose salary is even higher than Tanaka’s, posted a 4.78 ERA last season, and struggled to find any control on the ball. Hiroki Kuroda, who finished with a 3.31 ERA last season with the Yankees, but will be 39 next season.

The Yankees signed lots of veteran hitting this offseason, including Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, and Carlos Beltran. Despite getting these all-stars for a lot of cash, the Yankees would not have been able to contend for the postseason. Adding Tanaka could get them there. Yes, they lose star hitter Robinson Cano, as well as Curtis Granderson, but now they have upgraded their entire team.

New York’s fan revenue has also been down lately because of struggling seasons. Tanaka will get those fans back. The AL East was widely considered the most talented division in baseball last season, and adding Tanaka might secure that for yet another year.

Why New York? Rumor has it that Tanaka’s wife, who is a movie star in Japan, wanted to go somewhere to keep her acting career going. As for Tanaka, why not sign to a team who historically is the best, plus is getting $155 million? Tanaka’s agent, Casey Close, who is also Derek Jeter’s agent, might have had a big say in the whole thing as well. That being said, Close is also Clayton Kershaw’s, Zack Greinke’s, and formerly the Cubs’ Derek Lee’s agent. 

 

This looks like the best New York team since 2009, which, as you probably know, they won the World Series then. That being said, they will not be favorites for the World Series. Their pitching staff and talent were much younger and more talented than this 2014 ballclub. With Tanaka in, however, it gives hope for more in the future. He is young, which most Yankee players can’t say about themselves.

What does it mean for the other teams? Remember, the Cubs, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and White Sox also made offers to Tanaka. Let’s break this down team, by team, with the easy teams to cope with vs the teams that just felt like they’ve been dumped.

The Chicago White Sox just wanted to test the Tanaka market. General Manager Rick Hahn even said that they were not “all in” compared to the Yankees (ironically, “all in” is the White Sox slogan). That being said, the White Sox are making some great moves in rebuilding, after losing 99 games this past season. Signing Cuban slugger Jose Abreu is going to be the future of the team.

The Dodgers too ran the risk of breaking the luxury tax with Tanaka, especially since resigning Clayton Kershaw to the biggest pitching deal in history. Tanaka would be their 3^rd starter in their rotation after Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Having Tanaka as your third starter would probably get you to the World Series. Even without Tanaka though, they can probably make it to the Fall Classic.

The Dodgers are also still interested in the other quality free agents, especially former Reds starter Bronson Arroyo. The only difference with the free agent starters now is age, which made Tanaka so valuable. It’s not the end of the world for the Dodgers.

The Diamondbacks were reportedly out of the Tanaka race about an hour before the actual decision was made. But Tanaka would make them a contending team. They have finished .500 for two years in a row now, and they need that next starter to go with Patrick Corbin and top prospect Archie Bradley. Now Arizona will most likely have to wait until Bradley comes in to play.

But most of all, this is a devastating blow to the Chicago Cubs. It’s a blow to owner Tom Ricketts and how he’s dealt with the Chicago Cubs, it gets rid of any hope for fans in 2014, and now they are one starter short of an organization that has not much young pitching. They have so many great hitting prospects, but when it comes to pitching, there’s not so much.

The Cubs reportedly would bet way over anyone else for Tanaka, but I guess that didn’t matter. Adding Tanaka would mean that the Cubs would be very serious contenders in 2015, while probably having a winning record in 2014.

There’s a lot of questioning of “is Tanaka going to the Yankees good for baseball?” Well, it’s great for the Yankees, but if he went to the Cubs, it might raise revenue by a large amount.

Jeff Samardzija said that he would much more likely to resign with the Cubs if they signed Tanaka. With Jeff’s contract ending in 2015, not only do the Cubs lose their chance for an ace over the next seven years, but now they lose their ace right now. The chances of Samardzija getting traded this offseason now has raised considerably.

All is not over, except maybe for the Cubs. Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Matt Garza are still on the list among quality starters. There is still a lot of chance to dive into free agency. The Yankees seem set. As for the Cubs, it’s yet another crushing blow for the organization. Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns.

-Evan Boyd