Your Bullpen can Make or Break Your Team

It was a heartbreaking loss for the Chicago Cubs on the 100^th anniversary of Wrigley Field, which brings me to my least favorite thing in all of baseball: blown saves.

Time and time again have I seen teams who are so talented lose because their bullpen is weak and they cannot get the job done. It is a tough job to save a game, more than people might think, but the teams that have a strong closer win games and win championships.

Look at Mariano Rivera. The guy not only has four World Series rings, but he also blew a World Series in 2001 against the Arizona Diamondbacks. However, that Game 7 would have never happened if D-Backs closer Byung-Hyun Kim didn’t blow two games before that!

But what the great thing about Rivera is that despite blowing a chance at a four-peat for the Yankees, he was able to bounce back. That’s what a closer needs to be able to do.

That, or just be really, really good. Craig Kimbrel has proven to be one of the best closers of all time already, and I think that if he keeps it up, he’ll break Rivera’s record.

Speaking of Kimbrel, the Braves had the best relief system in baseball last year, a bullpen that was even injured for part/all of the season. Their bullpen put up a team 2.46 ERA, and saved the game 77% of the time. Only two teams had a better save percentage – the Pirates and Rangers, who also have great closers.

Of the top ten teams in relief last year, their save/opportunity percentage was an average of 73.1%. The lower 10 have an average of 64%. Not as bad as one might think, but notice this too: only two of the teams in the bottom ten made the playoffs. One of them fixed their problems in the middle of the year, and the other failed to do so, and it wound up biting them in the rear. These two teams squared off in the ALCS.

Yes, the Detroit Tigers and the eventual champion Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox got off to a terrible start at the beginning of the year with relief, losing Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey. It wasn’t until late June when Koji Uehara (as I’ve wanted for years to happen) took the closing role, and put on some of the greatest numbers in history.

And oh, the Tigers. You can make a good argument that the Tigers failed to make the World Series solely because of their bullpen. Without that grand slam off David Ortiz, the Tigers would have taken a commanding 2-0 lead in the series. A few more blown leads by the bullpen to discredit such an amazing starting rotation led to them going home.

There is a reason why Uehara won the ALCS MVP award. Not only was he able to perform lights out with three saves and not allow a run, but that relief pitching for Boston embarrassed Detroit’s relief. That’s what got them to the World Series and eventually a win.

Noting pains me more than seeing a starter pitch 7 or 8 strong innings, all to be forgot because the bullpen failed to maintain their game. Jeff Samardzjia for the Cubs has a 1.53 ERA, but is winless because the bullpen has blown two of his games. The Cubs have blown four saves and have a save % of 33%, tied with the Angels for worst in baseball.

But don’t rule out set-up men, either. Guys who have to come in with runners on have a very tough job to do. But that is their job, so when they give up a hit, the runs scored are charged to the starter, not the reliever. But isn’t that their whole point of them coming in? Like saves, holds is a stat that tracks how many times a relief pitcher held the same score when they came in. So if it’s a player’s team is up 2-1 in the 8^th, and that player pitches a scoreless inning, they get a hold.

Why did the Pirates have 70 chances to save games last season? Not only because they play close games, but their set-up men are the best in the game, allowing no runs in the 7^th and 8^th so that the closer can do their job. Pirates’ reliever Mark Melancon was the best set-up men in the game last season, and he is doing just as well this time around.

Bullpen is key. If they lose a couple games here and there, then fine. But the teams that win have good bullpens, or at least a good closer. Over the past ten years, each championship team has had that go-to guy to close out the game. The 9^th inning shouldn’t be a time to panic, it should be a time to say “game over” (and yes, that is a reference to Eric Gagne’s Cy Young season in 2003).

Plus, relief systems are cheap. It’s easy to get a veteran reliever for one or two years to close out games. Look at Joe Nathan, for example. The Rangers signed him with a two year deal when he was 37, and he was able to grab 80 saves and finish with a 2.09 ERA in two seasons. It’s easy to sign a player for a short term solution when it comes to relief. I’m not saying that that’s better than having young pitching to work the 9^th, but it is a solution that has worked.

But when teams choose not to sign a top closer no matter where they are in terms of talent, it really bugs me because they have the potential to, but as a result they lose heartbreakers. So no matter where your team is in their division, just hope that they have someone who can pitch the 9^th.