Moving to the New Website Officially

It has come to my attention that I don't need to be updating this blog, as the other website I am currently writing for posts the same articles and gets more views. I thank this blog and for all who've read it for starting out my career as a baseball writer.

For all things that I've written or mention me on this website can be found here. You can also search "Evan Boyd" on the website, or just look at the recent MLB posts. You can also follow me on Twitter @eboyd42.

Once again, thank you all for reading this, and I hope you continue reading my articles.

Why King Felix Really Is a King

In 2010, many baseball gurus and fans were irate at the end of the season. With only a 13-12 record, Felix Hernandez won his first Cy Young Award at age 24. Finishing 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th, respectively, were David Price, CC Sabathia, and Jon Lester. Price finished the year going 19-6, Sabathia at 21-7, and Lester 19-9. Even after going 19-5 with a 2.49 ERA the year before, he only finished in 2^nd place that year.

So why did Hernandez win the Cy Young?

It’s pretty simple when you look at some statistics, actually. Hernandez’s ERA was 2.27 that year, pitched an absurd 249.2 innings, and only allowed 7.0 hits per nine innings. All of those stats led the league.

Advanced statistics also favored Hernandez. His ERA+, adjusted for ballpark effects, was an absurd 174, allowed a .263 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP), and opponents’ batting average was just .210. According to Baseball Reference, his Wins Above Replacement number was 7.1, which was the best among American League pitchers.

Those statistics dominated every other team and was better than every other pitcher in the AL, even though he finished barely over .500.

From 2011 to 2013, Hernandez put up fine numbers statistically, including having an incredible perfect game in 2012, but finished 39-33 in that span. Would you believe me if I told you he’s having his best season this year?

Picture this: every stat from 2010 I told you about is better, minus innings and WAR (which will be better by the end of the season). He currently leads the AL with a 1.97 ERA, an even more absurd 189 ERA+, and allows 6.2 hits per nine innings. Currently, his WAR value is 5.7, which is 4^th best in the Majors. Don’t believe in the advanced stats? I’m sorry you think that, but his record now is 12-3. How’s that?

He’s improved slightly in those categories, but has improved greatly in many others. While his Fielded Independent Pitching was 3.04 in 2010 (which is average), his FIP this year is a league best 2.04. His WHIP has also lowered to a league best 0.877, has a great 5.81 K/BB ratio, while his BABIP is about the same.

What’s sort of weird is that his ratios have not changed much. He still maintains about a 56% ground ball ratio, slightly lowered his home run ratio, and his ground ball/fly ball ratio is slightly higher. 

What IS noticeable is that he has thrown his fastball much less (44.8% this year to 60.7% in 2010), while doubling his changeup percentage.

Fun fact: his changeup rests at almost 90 mph, and his fastball velocity is at about 93 mph. With such a great drop on it too, his changeup is almost as good as Clayton Kershaw’s 12-curve.

At only 28 years old still, it looks like Felix Hernandez will remain the King for a while now. And what’s not to like about that? If he keeps it up, it looks like he’s going to win his 2^nd Cy Young, this time without an argument.

Ranking the Five Biggest Teams at the Trade Deadline

Wow! So many blockbuster trades today! The day got going early when Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes were sent to the Oakland Athletics, but they got Yoenis Cespedes in return! Then when everybody thought David Price would stay in Tampa, he ends up being traded in a three-team deal.

What I find interesting about this trade deadline is that over the past two days, lots of players were dealt, but not many highly touted prospects moved as well. The only big acquisition dealing with a lot of prospects was with the Marlins and Astros, which I’ll talk about below. It just goes to show that some of these prospects are too valuable to teams, and they like their futures. That, or they didn’t have any big prospects to begin with.

In my mind, there are five teams that made the biggest splash in the trade market this July: Boston, Oakland, St. Louis, Detroit, and Tampa Bay. The Chicago Cubs also made a big splash, but because their biggest acquisition occurred earlier in the month, so instead of talking about old news, I’ll refrain from grading them.

Please note that my grading takes in current success, future success,  how teams benefit/suffer financially, etc.

Boston Red Sox: A-

The Red Sox made five trades over the past two days, clearing up a lot of their expiring contracts and grabbing some present and future talent. Plus, they grabbed players that they can sign extensions to so that they are not competing with other players in the offseasons.

Here’s who was traded and where to:

Jon Lester- Athletics

Jonny Gomes – Athletics

John Lackey – Cardinals

Stephen Drew – Yankees

Andrew Miller – Red Sox

Felix Doubront – Cubs

And here’s who they got out:

Yoenis Cespedes (Athletics)

Joe Kelly (Cardinals)

Allen Craig (Cardinals)

Kelly Johnson (Yankees)

Eduardo Rodriguez (Orioles)

Plus a player-to-be-named-later from the Cubs. If you look at it, they only got one prospect in Rodriguez. He was recently ranked as the third best prospect in Baltimore’s farm system by MLB.com, and now 10^th best for the Red Sox.

Allen Craig was one of the most dangerous hitters last year when he batted .315/.373/.457 and had a batting average with RISP over .400, which was by far the best in baseball. After getting injured and losing his touch in the clutch, Craig’s numbers have regressed this year significantly. Personally, I think it’s more of a move to get him a different scenery, and he will perform better at Fenway.

I find Joe Kelly a very interesting piece. At 26 years old, Kelly has too battled with injuries this year. Like Craig, however, he had a great season last year, both as a starter and a reliever. Remember, this was the guy that started off the NLCS for the Cards, getting a no-decision.

And how about grabbing Cespedes? He’s already wowed fans with his arm this year, and now he’s going to a team where he can wow them with homers over the green monster. At 28, he’s not the kind of guy who can hit for contact, but he has power that is rare nowadays. Sign him an extension, and the Red Sox will have him for a long time.

The Red Sox did trade lots of their pitching, but they have prospects Henry Owens and Allen Webster that are ready to come up at any point now. It will look like a revamped pitching rotation, but that’s nothing to be afraid of.

Now 12 games under .500, the Red Sox are not contending anymore. But here’s what the first six in their order will look like next season (as long as they’re healthy):

1.      Some leadoff hitter (Mookie Betts? Jackie Bradley Jr.?)

2.      Dustin Pedroia

3.      David Ortiz

4.      Yoenis Cespedes

5.      Mike Napoli

6.      Xander Bogaerts

Add Craig into that mix too, and that’s one scary lineup. So when Ortiz retires, they now have Cespedes to take his place to hit some out.

Oakland Athletics: ?????

All of these trades that Oakland has made will depend on one thing: a title. If they win it this year, then all of the trades matter. If not, however, Billy Beane has some explaining to do.

They have given up a ton to get where they are now. Losing Cespedes and top prospect Addison Russell is HUGE to their future success. But while many are still shaking their heads about trading away Cespedes, remember that he is going to be a free agent soon, and the Athletics won’t be able to afford him.

As for losing Russell, well, I think Beane might regret that one.

Here’s an interesting stat, though. The Athletics also got Gomes, mind you. While Cespedes is a better player, Gomes can post a high OPS (On-Base Plus Slugging). In fact, his .771 OPS last year was 40 points better than Cespedes, and 10 points better than Yoenis’ OPS this year.

Now they have arguably four aces with Lester, Sonny Gray, Jeff Samardzija, and Scott Kazmir, with Jason Hammel as the best 5^th man in baseball. Billy Beane is going all in this year, and clearly shows it with Lester. While Boston wins the future battle, the Athletics strengthen their rotation even more, that they are clear favorites to win the pennant.

Detroit Tigers: A

Why is Beane going all in, getting more than enough? Honestly, I think part of the reason is because he is afraid of the Tigers. It seems like every year Detroit shuts down Oakland, and Justin Verlander pitches another miraculous Game 5 or Game 7.  But with Lester and Samardzija, it seemed like he would easily overcome Detroit this year.

BUT THEN THEY GOT DAVID PRICE. Though I still think that Oakland will be the favorites, the Tigers pose an even bigger threat to win not only this year, but next year as well. Now they have Price until the end of 2015, and they didn’t even need to give up much for it.

The deal sends Price to the Tigers, OF Austin Jackson to the Mariners, and Drew Smyly, SS Nick Franklin, and SS prospect Willy Adames to Tampa Bay. Adames, 18, is now ranked as the 2^nd best Rays’ prospect, according to MLB.com.

Jackson, 27, is hitting .270/.330/.397 with a 99  OPS+ (adjusted for ballpark factors), and has been the starting centerfielder for Detroit for the last couple of years. Smyly, 25, has been both a starter and reliever in three years as a big leaguer, and has put up a 3.77 ERA this year. Nick Franklin, 23, is one of the best shortstops defensively, but needs to make improvement on his hitting.

Overall, however, they got a former Cy Young winner who only 28 years old and has been on fire in July. Not only that, but they really didn’t give up any HUGE talent. Jackson will be missed, but Price will make them, once again, a dangerous team to play against.

Tampa Bay Rays: C

I think moving David Price was the overall best move, but I think they could have gotten more from it, or at least wait until the offseason to try to trade him. For example, the Dodgers, who were the favorites in getting Price according to sources, have plenty of young and talented prospects to give up if they wanted to go after him.

Drew Smyly, Nick Franklin, and Willy Adames all will have future success, but I expected them to get more out of the former Cy Young winner. You saw the Cubs get one of the best prospects in Addison Russell, and the A’s traded for two pitchers that are nowhere near as good as Price.

What IS good is that these guys will be Rays for a while. Smyly cannot become a free agent until 2018, Franklin in 2019, and Adames will probably be there for a long time.

Who knows, maybe in a few years these guys will all be all stars. General Manager Andrew Friedman said that they wouldn’t trade Price unless there was an offer that would be a no-brainer. But was this really a no brainer?

St. Louis Cardinals: B

Like the Red Sox, the Cardinals made a ton of moves, but they now face the opportunity to clinch a tough NL Central division. They added two pitchers – Justin Masterson from the Indians and John Lackey from the Sox – for a couple of Major League Players and a prospect.

I like the Justin Masterson trade because they get a guy that definitely needs a change of scenery. After going 14-10 with a 3.45 ERA last year, he has completely lost everything this year. He’s now 4-6 with a 5.51 ERA and a 68 ERA+, which is one of the worst among starting pitchers.

They gave up James Ramsey for him, an outfielder who represented the Cardinals in the Futures Game during the all-star break. Ramsey was batting .300/.389/.527 with 13 home runs and 36 RBI’s in the Cardinals minor league system, and is ranked as Cleveland’s 5^th best prospect.

As for the John Lackey deal, they get a guy for a year and a half to act as a 2^nd or 3^rd starter in the rotation. Lackey, 35, has had a history of knee problems, but has proven to come up as one of the best starters in the postseason (he won one last year and one as a rookie in 2002 with Anaheim). This year, Lackey went 11-7 with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.6 WAR.

Losing Craig and Kelly, however, is going to be tough, especially mentally for the team. Both of them were brought up by the Cardinals system, and have been there for such a long time. Was it worth it to lose them to get John Lackey?

I’m saying no, but the Cardinals need pitching. Michael Wacha is on the 60-Day DL, and Jaime Garcia’s future status is uncertain. Removing Craig also helps the Cardinals play top prospect Oscar Taveras, who is struggling a bit in the Majors.

The Cardinals made moves that make sense for now and the future, but they did have to give up plenty to get not a whole lot.

Here are the other trades that happened over the past two days:

·         Asdrubal Cabrera (Indians) to Nationals for infielder Zach Walters

·         Jarred Cosart (Astros) to Marlins in 6-player deal

·         Martin Prado (D-Backs) to Yankees for Peter O’Brien

·         James Russell and Emilio Bonifacio (Cubs) to Braves for Victor Caratini

·         Chris Denorfia (Padres) to Mariners for Stephen Kohlscheen and Abraham Almonte

·         Tommy Milone (Athletics) to Twins for Sam Fuld

·         Gerardo Parra (D-Backs) to Brewers for Mitch Haniger and Anthony Banda.

Will we have as good of a July 31^st as that? I don’t think we will for a long time.