Wednesday, February 12, 2014

MLB Power Ranks: 25-21



Spring training is coming up, and with the offseason almost over, who has the advantage at the start of the season? We’re ranking the teams, this week and next, so let’s look at the 25-21 teams, after looking at the worst five previously.

25. Chicago White Sox
2013 Record: 63-99

The White Sox arguably had the best offseason than any other team. They struck early by adding the Cuban slugger Jose Abreu, a very good power hitter that can replace the soon-to-retire favorite, Paul Konerko. They also added Adam Eaton, plus got prospect Avisail Garcia in the Jake Peavy trade in July.

Best Player: Chris Sale. The one bright spot in their rotation, Sale is one of the best pitchers in baseball – and he’ll only be 25 in 2014. He finished 11-14 with a 3.07 ERA last season, but don’t let that record fool you. Sale finished with a 6.9 WAR, a 4.91 K/BB ratio, and has proved to have one of the sickest sliders I’ve ever seen. I love the potential for him, and he could easily bring back the Cy Young award in Chicago.

Who needs to step up: Abreu. It’ll be a make-or-break season, depending on how he does. The rest of the lineup, though young (minus Adam Dunn), is sloppy and discombobulated. The team finished with a .302 OBP (27th in MLB) and a .378 slugging percentage (25th), ending the year scoring 598 runs (29th). He might just go in the clean-up spot in this order. If he cleans up his defensive game and can hit to his potential (25-30 home runs), he could easily win the Rookie of the Year.

The White Sox have some young talent that can strike into a .500 record, but they still need some tools to make it there. Remember though, this team was in first place for the longest time in 2012 before blowing it in September. Manager Robin Ventura will have to lead the team back to those numbers.
Projected 2014 Record: 72-90
 
24. Toronto Blue Jays
2013 Record: 74-88
Like the Philadelphia Phillies, I’m having trouble trying to figure out where this team is going for 2014 and for the future. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, despite having decent hitting, they are just in a tough division and lack pitching to compete. That being said, they’re the one team that I might be pushing too hard.

Best Player: Edwin Encarnacion. The power hitter for Toronto just came off of 42 home runs in 2012 and 36 in 2013, his two best years. Lately, he has also put up better averages and OBP numbers, and has had 100+ RBI’s in both seasons. He’ll be 31 in 2014, so a little past his prime, but still has some juice in him (and no, I’m not saying he’s taking steroids). He leads a team that finished 8th in the MLB in slugging percentage at .411.

Who needs to step up: Honestly, it’s up for grabs for this team, but I’ll give it to R.A. Dickey. The 39-year old and 2012 Cy Young winner still has more to prove if he wants to be the ace after being traded for a lot of good prospects (Travis d’Arnaud is just one of them). He still put up ok numbers in 2013, going 14-13 with a 4.21 ERA, which are usually knuckleball numbers. I’m just saying that if this team does want to compete, he’s got to be the ace of this team, and that ERA has to go down. With a knuckleball pitcher, I know it’s tough, but it’s been proven possible for him.

Their two best pitchers are Dickey and Mark Buehrle, who are well past their prime. They didn’t make too much of a splash in the 2014 offseason, but in 2015, they could be the next Seattle Mariners. As for 2014, I can’t see them beating the Red Sox, Rays, Yankees, and Orioles.

Projected 2014 finish: 74-88

23. Milwaukee Brewers
2013 Season: 74-88

Ah, the Milwaukee Brewers. So many decent players, yet they still pull out 14 games under. Statistically, they should be in the middle of the pack in the rankings. But why aren’t they in the runnings?

Ever since John Axford’s absurd 2011 season, the team has had a mediocre bullpen. Jim Henderson seems to be their closer now after trying to mix with Axford and Francisco Rodriguez, who put up fine numbers in 2013. Brandon Kintzler seems to be their set-up man, who had 27 holds last season.

Yovani Gallardo has been their ace for the past few years now, and despite having his 5th 10-game win season, Gallardo put up his worst numbers in 2013, going 12-10 with a 4.18 ERA. They also have Kyle Lohse who put up a team best 3.30 ERA among starters, but he is aging too.

All-star Corey Hart got injured towards the beginning of the season, which just crashed the team. And of course, Ryan Braun was suspended. That surely made an impact, right? Truth is, the day Braun was suspended, the Brewers were still 17 games under, and they were in last place.

But hey, 2013 is over, so let’s see what they’ve got coming in 2014.

Best Player: Carlos Gomez, and yes, not Ryan Braun. Braun was suspended for steroids last season, so how could I possibly put him as their best player? Plus, Carlos Gomez was one of the best players in baseball last season and few even realized.

Carlos Gomez was the best defensive outfielder last season, winning the CF Gold Glove Award,  and put up great offensive numbers. Gomez finished the season batting .284/..338/.506 with 10 triples, 24 home runs, 73 RBI’s, and 40 steals. He also finished with an 8.4 WAR, which was higher than both MVP’s, Andrew McCutchen and Miguel Cabrera. Plus, he’ll be entering his age 28 season in 2014.

Who needs to step up: It’s more of a statement for himself, but Braun. He is only entering his age 30 season, and still is one of the best hitters in the national league. But now with the whole steroid thing, the 2014 season is his chance to prove to the world that he’s one of the best outfielders in the NL. He also can determine whether this team finishes under .500 or over. The fans don’t like him anymore, baseball doesn’t like him, so he needs to prove his role once again. Hell, it might spark the team on a winning streak.

Another factor to watch out for is Jean Segura. He’ll be only 24 in March, and was one of the best shortstops offensively and defensively in baseball. He finished last year batting .294/.329/.423 with 44 steals. If he gets his OBP up, he can be the next Derek Jeter. Also watch out for their new acquisition in Matt Garza. He is a strong arm that immensely boosts this pitching rotation.

2014 Prediction: 75-87

22. New York Mets
2013 Record: 74-88

The Mets dove into the offseason acquiring Curtis Granderson, but after a while they just stopped getting big guys, which was surprising because it looked like they’d make a bigger splash. Either way, can the team fix their struggles? They finished 29th in batting average AND in slugging percentage (.237, .366), plus they finished 25th in OBP (.306). Pitching was stronger, but they still finished 20th in batting average allowed (.256).


Best Player: Career wise, it’s probably Johan Santana, but for 2014, it’s David Wright. “Captain America” was sidelined with injury in 2013 and played just 112 games, but he still batted .307/.390/.514 with a 5.8 WAR. If he stays healthy, he might go up for MVP once again.

Who needs to step up: Everybody that has been injured. Good lord is this team weak when David Wright and Johan Santana don’t play. One guy that also needs to stay healthy is rookie Travis d’Arnaud. If he stays healthy and has a good spring training, he might just start on Opening Day and win Rookie of the Year honors.

Yes, Santana is nothing like his days in Minnesota, but if he can make a comeback, he can still put up good numbers. Wright will be entering his 31 season, and still has his hitting to be a great player.

The Mets will most likely pull out in 3rd place in the NL East, but that’s mostly because it’s a poor conference. If people stay healthy, they could be closer to 2nd than everyone might think. That being said, there’s a low probability that all of them will come back healthy and strong.

2014 Prediction: 75-87

21. Colorado Rockies
2013 Season: 74-88
Like the Mets, the Rockies need to stay healthy in order to be contenders. Their 74-88 record is a 10-game improvement from 2012, but they still need a better pitching rotation, who, despite playing in the heavy hitter-friendly Coors Field, finished dead last in pitching stats in 2013. That being said, they had one of the best offenses in the game.

Best Player: You could give this to Michael Cuddyer or Carlos Gonzalez and I wouldn’t argue, but I’d say Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo, who will be only 29 in 2014, is the best offensive shortstop in the game right now, but he has to stay healthy. The last time he had a season with 150+ games was in 2009, one of two seasons with more than 150 games played.

Who needs to step up: Justin Morneau. The new acquisition for the Rockies has to replace the greatest Rockie to ever play, Todd Helton, at first base. But the 33 year old finished batting .259/.323/.411 with the Twins and Pirates last season, hitting 17 home runs and driving in 77 runs. Entering a hitter-friendly ballpark, I think Morneau can produce numbers like his 2006 MVP season. My darkhorse for the 2014 season, I’m predicting that Morneau can hit 30 home runs with a .290 batting average.

With top prospect Jonathan Gray still in the minor leagues, it looks like the Rockies still won’t have enough pitching until he is called up. With the Dodgers so good this year, it’ll be too tough to make it to the postseason.

2014 Prediction: 76-86

Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns, and stay tuned for the middle of the pack teams for next season.

-Evan Boyd

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