The Price is Right: Why the Cubs Can Pull Off the Ace

Full disclosure: I have no idea whether David Price is going to be traded or not. If you asked me this two weeks ago, I’d say he would be traded, but asked a week ago and I’d say he’s staying.

In 2012, Price went 20-5 with a 2.56 ERA and a 6.9 WAR, winning the Cy Young Award. Now, he is only 11-7 with a 3.08 ERA and a 2.8 WAR. He also has given up an AL high 20 home runs. However, some other metrics puts Price as having an even better season. He’s already thrown 164 innings with 183 strikeouts, both AL highs, while only walking 21. That makes up an incredible 8.71 K/BB ratio, with a 10.1 K/9 rate. His K/BB ratio during his glory days was only 3.47.

 

The Rays were really struggling in the middle of the season, but now they have almost moved to a .500 record. With that, Price has posted a 1.88 ERA in his past 11 starts. The more they stay hot, the more unlikely Price gets dealt.

When talking about Price earlier, I put the Cleveland Indians and the Boston Red Sox as two teams that might pull a surprise move to get him. The Red Sox, however, have now moved to a selling team, as they sit in last place in the AL East and are selling their pieces. Cleveland is now one game under .500, so it looks like they are slowly fading away from any talks.

The Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers, and Los Angeles Dodgers have been in the talks. The Brewers really have nothing to give in their farm system (sorry Milwaukee fans), and I’ve heard that both the Mariners and Dodgers are hesitant on trading their top prospects.

The Dodgers would be the frontrunners, as SS Corey Seager and 17-year old righty Julio Urias, and slugger Joc Pederson, are ranked among the top 20 prospects in baseball, according to MLB.com. Like I said, however, they are hesitant on trading those three.

There’s one team, however, that I can see make a surprising move to get Price, and that’s the Chicago Cubs.

The Cubs now own baseball’s best farm system, according to Baseball America, ESPN, and MLB.com. They also have young talent in the Majors already. While Price’s contract could expire as early as 2015, the Cubs can sign an extension to his contract to get him to stay longer.

This is not the only time Theo Epstein has done this. As he began his uproots in Boston, they traded for Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, and David Ortiz, and signed them to extensions. Boston’s farm system was nowhere as good then, either.

Theo also has claimed that he hopes this is the last year the Cubs appear as sellers on the market. They still have pieces that might get traded, such as Nate Schierholtz, Justin Ruggiano, and possibly Luis Valbuena. But the Cubs have plenty of talent that can get Price, and most importantly, pieces that the Rays need (hint: it’s hitting).

The Cubs would either need to give up Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, or Addison Russell if they want a player-for-player trade. All three of them are ranked in the top 10 prospects at almost every site you’ll see. But Theo wants to keep a strong farm system, and trading one of them might not be worth it.

Thus, I go to Starlin Castro.

Castro has been all the talk over the past five years when he broke out with a bang in 2010. Since then, he has put up a career .281/.323/.407 average. His numbers have improved since struggling big time last year, but he’s still only batting .270/.323/.423, which is nothing incredible. Yet, Castro still has room for improvement and lots of potential, as he's still only 24 years old. Addison Russell or Javier Baez, both listed as shortstops, can put up equal to better numbers at the position.

Note: while the Cubs do have a logjam at the shortstop position, it’s better than having a logjam at any other position. Shortstops are the most versatile position, and can play second base, third base, or even a corner outfield. Baez has recently started moving to second base as well.

The Rays need a shortstop, and can already get talent now and still contend if they get Castro. Plus, add another Cub prospect like Kyle Schwarber or Billy McKinney, and then they get power in their system, something that they lack in.

The Cubs have plenty of pieces to build around or trade away, plus they have the money to extend Price’s contract. Price reiterates how cool it would be to win a World Series with the Cubs. They have so much power but not much pitching, and adding Price is a perfect fit.

If the Cubs don’t get Price, they could go after Jon Lester and Max Scherzer in the offseason and compete in a bidding duel with teams, especially the Yankees. Adding Price ensures they don’t have to do that (and won’t have to overpay for any players).

The Cubs are a wild card in this, but that doesn’t mean that they are ruled out of the negotiations. But hey, like I said, who knows if they'll even trade him.

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And I Will Do Anything For...

Love. Power. Money. In this case, the Yankees will do anything for a win.

Have you realized that the New York Yankees have practically thrown everything overboard over the past few years and have a completely new lineup? No more Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, Mo Rivera, and soon there will be no Derek Jeter and possibly C.C. Sabathia.

Plus, they are constantly injured. Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, and Ivan Nova, all pitchers, are out until at least the middle of August. Sabathia and Nova are out for the season, Tanaka might undergo Tommy John surgery that would end his season, only leaving Pineda to come back sometime next month.

Currently, nobody on the Yankee’s starting lineup is under 30 years old.

So what are they doing now? They are willing to try anything in their power to try and get any player. They’ve traded for players like Brandon McCarthy and Chase Headley – both fine moves – while giving up almost everything that they have in their farm system.

If this was any other team than the Yankees, I’d suggest tanking the season and trade away everybody to try and stock up the farm system. But this is the New York Yankees, who have the most money and can buy any player that they can think of.

But here’s the problem: they are just not that good! The only luck that they have with them right now is how they are in a struggling AL East currently, so they are tied in 2^nd, four games back from the Orioles. Almost all of their players are way overvalued, especially their four big acquisitions in the offseason: Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Masahiro Tanaka.

Let’s measure the batters in terms of their slash line, Wins Above Replacement Value, and On-Base Plus Slugging + (OPS+), which is OPS that is adjusted to the ballpark that they play at. An OPS+ of 100 is average, and you want a higher number. For Tanaka, I’m adding FIP, which measures what a player’s ERA should have been over a season, assuming that performance on balls in play were the league’s average.

McCann: .242/.297/.377, 0.6 WAR, 87 OPS+. Paid five years, $85 million; 30 years old.

Beltran: .220/.273/.411, -0/6 WAR, 88 OPS+. Paid three years, $45 million; 37 years old.

Ellsbury: .291/.354/.777, 2.4 WAR, 116 OPS+. Paid seven years, $154 million; 30 years old.

Tanaka: 12-4, 2.51 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 4.0 WAR. Out indefinitely and might need Tommy John surgery, which would end his season and almost the entire 2015 season. Paid seven years, $155 million; 25 years old.

As you can see, Tanaka and Ellsbury are doing well, but it’s up to you whether you think it’s worth that much money (hint: it’s not).

And are the injuries all that surprising? You can’t blame all of it on bad luck. Since Sabathia lost so much weight, his ERA has plummeted, and he has been constantly battling with small injuries. Many Japanese players have dealt with some sort of injury that has sent their career from promising to short-lived. Look at Daisuke Matsuzaka, who after having one amazing year could not get over injuries (though he is still playing, now with the Mets).

The point is, the Yankees are old, have no farm system, and are buying players who have a high risk of injury. Jeter is gone by this year, and Ichiro is not far behind him. Hiroki Kuroda is 39 and looks like he can retire now or the next year. Because of all of this signing and trading, they have lost much of their farm system. Now, they don’t have any tools to try and grab a guy like David Price before the trade deadline.

In order for them to compete in the East, they need one more big addition. With the poor farm system they have now and because their entire team is old, they don’t have the tools to grab anyone. They are not good enough to win the division, plain and simple.

But hey, it’s the Yankees. They will do anything for wins. If they can’t get David Price, they’ll trade for someone else this year. And even though they will be past their prime, they will go after big free agent pitchers like Max Scherzer and Jon Lester in the offseason. It’s the Yankees, and money can go a long way.

Do they still have a shot? Somehow, yes. Do I think they’ll make it? No. But hey, it’s the Yankees. 

Five Teams to Watch Out For in the Second Half

With the all-star break just about over, we wrap up the first half of the season and move onto the second half. Which teams will make it on top? Who might fall late in September? And what teams might want to trade some of their talent, and who’s ready to compete to take that talent? Let’s look at five teams who all fit one of these questions. These are the five teams that you should pay most attention to in the second half, as they might just have a big impact on the season.

1.   Tampa Bay Rays

Current Record: 44-53

Manager Joe Maddon said that he wanted the club to move to 50-50 at the century mark, which obviously can’t happen anymore. Nevertheless, the Rays have put them into a position that every team has been looking at: what are they going to do with David Price?

Now that Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel have both been traded to the Athletics, David Price is now the prized arm in this year’s trade watch. This year, Price has gone 9-7 with a 3.23 ERA, and has given up an AL high 19 home runs. Not terrible, but not like his Cy Young year, where in 2012 he went 20-5 with a 2.56 ERA.

What IS good about Price is the advanced metrics. He leads the AL in innings pitched (147.2), strikeouts (164), and batters faced (599). This amounts to a very good 7.81 K/BB ratio, a 3.12 FIP (Fielded Independent Pitching), and a 2.2 WAR. He is 28 years old and is making about $15 million per year.

The Samardzija/Hammel trade has helped the Rays a ton because the Cubs got one of the best prospects in baseball with Addison Russell. Tampa Bay wants to make sure that they can get someone even better with a pitcher that is, well, even better.

Price will be a free agent after the 2015 season, so having him for an extra season boosts his trade value up even more. The only problem is, the Rays think they still have a chance to make the playoffs. They have been playing much better since the start of the year, and they’re hoping that momentum can carry in the second half.

Barring an eight+ game winning streak, they will most likely trade him along with other veteran players. Teams that are interested are the Dodgers, Angels, Cardinals, Orioles, Yankees, Blue Jays, and Mariners. I even heard that the Cubs are interested in him as well. Of those teams, only the Blue Jays and the Cubs have enough talent in the minor leagues to get him.

Now it’s all a matter of what General Manager Andrew Friedman wants to do. It is probably a bad idea to move Price to another team that’s in your division, cutting out the Blue Jays, Yankees, and Orioles. Honestly, the two teams that I think have the best chance aren’t even on the list. Both I will talk about shortly!

The Rays have a chance to affect many different teams, but that all depends on whether or not they think this is the right year to trade players. Will they be buyers or sellers? Lots of teams are hoping the latter.

2.   Milwaukee Brewers

Current Record: 53-43

The Brewers were the hottest team at the start of the season. Many people were surprised, as they finished 4^th last year, only to add Matt Garza in the offseason. They now have become very balanced, however.

It all starts with two of their three starters in the all-star game, Carlos Gomez and Jonathan Lucroy.

Say what you want about his attitude, Gomez is one of the best outfielders in the game. He’s improved his offensive game from last year, as his OBP has gone up 32 points, and already has 24 doubles (his career high is 27). His defense is not as strong as last year, but he still has compiled a 3.7 WAR.

Jonathan Lucroy has all of the sudden become the best offensive catcher in the Majors. He’s batting .315/.385/.494 with a 42/39 K/BB ratio. Behind the plate, he’s just as good, making up a 4.1 WAR (3.7 offensively, 1.0 defensively, and yes they don’t have to add up).

But despite power, defense, and above average fielding, the Brewers have been struggling. They endured an awful final week, dropping seven in a row before closing out the first half by killing the Cardinals. They have lost 11 of their last 13 before the break.

After having a comfortable lead in the NL Central, they are tied with St. Louis on top. So will they lost their lead, and will the Cardinals snag yet another division title? One of those answers is yes for me…

3.   Cincinnati Reds

Current Record: 51-44

…which leads me to the Reds current situation. At seven games over .500, they are one of the hottest teams in baseball since the beginning of June. They’ve won seven of their last nine to move within 1.5 games of the Brewers. It’s funny- because they are doing it with injuries, too.

Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto are both on the DL, so talk about losing two of your best players. But why need them when guys like Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco have been the stars on the team?

Frazier is beginning to have the best career of one that will last long. All of his numbers have improved across the board; he is batting almost 60 points higher last year, and raised his OPS (on base plus slugging percentage) by over 130 points! On top of that, he’s hit 19 home runs (tied with his career high) and has swiped 14 bases. His season amounts to a 3.6 WAR – the best among third baseman in the NL.

Devin Mesoraco, though has played only 60 games, has molded himself as the starting catcher for the Reds. He has an outstanding .984 OPS plus a 3.2 WAR. Those offensive numbers for a defensive catcher, hell any catcher, are outstanding. At only 26 years old, he too might have more to offer to baseball in the coming years.

With an ace pitcher like Johnny Cueto and a closer like Aroldis Chapman, their pitching is just as good if not better. This is a balanced team, and I’m really impressed by rookie manager Bryan Price. So yes, I think the Reds have a great shot at making the playoffs this year. With the Brewers struggling and the Cardinals losing Yadier Molina, they have the best chance of winning the division.

4.   Cleveland Indians

Current Record: 47-47

Ok, let’s backtrack. I mentioned two teams might make a surprise in the David Price fiasco, and one of them is Cleveland. They have prospects and young talent to offer, with the biggest being Francisco Lindor. One of the best defensive shortstops in the minors, a Lindor-for-Price (plus some others) trade would work. Lindor is currently ranked as the 9^th overall prospect and the 3^rd best shortstop, according to MLB.com, and #6 on my list of overall prospects.

At a .500 record, they are literally in the middle of contending vs. not contending. Last year they sparked a 10 game winning streak to make it as one of the wild card teams, but lost to the Rays in the one-game playoff. I can’t see them passing the Tigers for the title, Price or no Price, but with some trades they might be able to make another wild card appearance.

The two problems they currently have are a struggling offense and some lack of pitching. Guys like Nick Swisher and Jason Kipnis have put up much better numbers in their career, and have yet to show anything this year.

Plus, nobody has figured out what is going on with Justin Masterson. Here’s a guy who put up a 3.45 ERA last year, but this year has a 5.51 ERA. He also has a terrible 1.66 K/BB ratio, and his WAR number is in the negatives.

I can see this team going more than just .500 in the second half, but at this point, they would be behind the Angels and Mariners in the wild card spots. Trade for some guys - maybe not even David Price but maybe even Jake Peavey from the Red Sox – and the tables might turn.

5.   Boston Red Sox

Current Record: 43-52

What happened? The defending World Champs are now playing as one of the worst teams to come out of just winning a title (not as bad as the 1999 Florida Marlins at least). It’s all been a hitting struggle. They have been getting on base, having a team .323 OBP (9^th best in the MLB), but they have lost their power completely.

This is a team that dominated every offensive category, but now are just 27^th in slugging and 22^nd in batting average (.371 and .246, respectively). Pitching has remained ok, but they might plan on trading two of their best pitchers, Jon Lester and Jake Peavy.

With the loss of Jacoby Ellsbury and Shane Victorino constantly injured, their outfield is now comprised of mostly young guys. Brock Holt, Mookie Betts, and Jackie Bradley Jr. have all had their chances, and so far only Holt has stepped up. What’s worse is that other top prospect Xander Bogaerts has been struggling big time, so none of the young guys have been panning out.

As a result, a lot of trade rumors have been flying around about where some of the guys are going to go. Lester has a 50-50 chance of getting traded, and I think it’s highly unlikely that he’ll be dealt. Trading away former Cy Young winner Jake Peavy would come out with a decent result.

Red Sox fans might not want to hear it, but Boston is in a perfect situation to trade a lot of players right now and tank the season. That’s what they did two years ago when they dealt Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, and Josh Beckett, and as a result they got salary space to sign players such as Mike Napoli, Koji Uehara, and Jonny Gomes, which we all know what resulted in.

Why not do that again for next year? There is an abundance of players in next year’s free agency, and they still have some players with big contracts.

But with such a large organization like the Red Sox, Ben Cherington could try and pull a different card. With prospects like Allen Webster and Henry Owens, they can try and make a run to get David Price.

Since A.J. Pierzynski was designated for assignment, the Red Sox called up Christian Vasquez. As a result, they had back-to-back walk offs and a dominating series win against Houston. Hopefully they can start making a run. After all, they are still only 9.5 games back with 67 left to play. If they have a good July, they might want to consider Price.

The World Champions are not out of making a difference this year. Whether they trade for or trade away, they can make a big impact this season.

The Seattle Mariners and the Cincinnati Reds are also two teams to look out for. Both have an easy chance to make the playoffs pending their health and if they want to trade for any players.

The season may be halfway done, but the big changes come this month. It all revolves around the Tampa Bay Rays and David Price, but watch some teams run out of gas, and some move right ahead.