The Price is Right: Why the Cubs Can Pull Off the Ace

Full disclosure: I have no idea whether David Price is going to be traded or not. If you asked me this two weeks ago, I’d say he would be traded, but asked a week ago and I’d say he’s staying.

In 2012, Price went 20-5 with a 2.56 ERA and a 6.9 WAR, winning the Cy Young Award. Now, he is only 11-7 with a 3.08 ERA and a 2.8 WAR. He also has given up an AL high 20 home runs. However, some other metrics puts Price as having an even better season. He’s already thrown 164 innings with 183 strikeouts, both AL highs, while only walking 21. That makes up an incredible 8.71 K/BB ratio, with a 10.1 K/9 rate. His K/BB ratio during his glory days was only 3.47.

 

The Rays were really struggling in the middle of the season, but now they have almost moved to a .500 record. With that, Price has posted a 1.88 ERA in his past 11 starts. The more they stay hot, the more unlikely Price gets dealt.

When talking about Price earlier, I put the Cleveland Indians and the Boston Red Sox as two teams that might pull a surprise move to get him. The Red Sox, however, have now moved to a selling team, as they sit in last place in the AL East and are selling their pieces. Cleveland is now one game under .500, so it looks like they are slowly fading away from any talks.

The Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers, and Los Angeles Dodgers have been in the talks. The Brewers really have nothing to give in their farm system (sorry Milwaukee fans), and I’ve heard that both the Mariners and Dodgers are hesitant on trading their top prospects.

The Dodgers would be the frontrunners, as SS Corey Seager and 17-year old righty Julio Urias, and slugger Joc Pederson, are ranked among the top 20 prospects in baseball, according to MLB.com. Like I said, however, they are hesitant on trading those three.

There’s one team, however, that I can see make a surprising move to get Price, and that’s the Chicago Cubs.

The Cubs now own baseball’s best farm system, according to Baseball America, ESPN, and MLB.com. They also have young talent in the Majors already. While Price’s contract could expire as early as 2015, the Cubs can sign an extension to his contract to get him to stay longer.

This is not the only time Theo Epstein has done this. As he began his uproots in Boston, they traded for Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, and David Ortiz, and signed them to extensions. Boston’s farm system was nowhere as good then, either.

Theo also has claimed that he hopes this is the last year the Cubs appear as sellers on the market. They still have pieces that might get traded, such as Nate Schierholtz, Justin Ruggiano, and possibly Luis Valbuena. But the Cubs have plenty of talent that can get Price, and most importantly, pieces that the Rays need (hint: it’s hitting).

The Cubs would either need to give up Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, or Addison Russell if they want a player-for-player trade. All three of them are ranked in the top 10 prospects at almost every site you’ll see. But Theo wants to keep a strong farm system, and trading one of them might not be worth it.

Thus, I go to Starlin Castro.

Castro has been all the talk over the past five years when he broke out with a bang in 2010. Since then, he has put up a career .281/.323/.407 average. His numbers have improved since struggling big time last year, but he’s still only batting .270/.323/.423, which is nothing incredible. Yet, Castro still has room for improvement and lots of potential, as he's still only 24 years old. Addison Russell or Javier Baez, both listed as shortstops, can put up equal to better numbers at the position.

Note: while the Cubs do have a logjam at the shortstop position, it’s better than having a logjam at any other position. Shortstops are the most versatile position, and can play second base, third base, or even a corner outfield. Baez has recently started moving to second base as well.

The Rays need a shortstop, and can already get talent now and still contend if they get Castro. Plus, add another Cub prospect like Kyle Schwarber or Billy McKinney, and then they get power in their system, something that they lack in.

The Cubs have plenty of pieces to build around or trade away, plus they have the money to extend Price’s contract. Price reiterates how cool it would be to win a World Series with the Cubs. They have so much power but not much pitching, and adding Price is a perfect fit.

If the Cubs don’t get Price, they could go after Jon Lester and Max Scherzer in the offseason and compete in a bidding duel with teams, especially the Yankees. Adding Price ensures they don’t have to do that (and won’t have to overpay for any players).

The Cubs are a wild card in this, but that doesn’t mean that they are ruled out of the negotiations. But hey, like I said, who knows if they'll even trade him.

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