Athletics-Cubs Trade: A Win-Win Deal

What a way to start of the offseason by making a blockbuster deal with two of the most interesting teams this year, as this will probably be the biggest trade all season. The Oakland Athletics add two starting pitchers who can go 200 innings this season, while the Cubs grabbed another incredible prospect in Addison Russell plus two others.

Oakland grabs Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel from the Cubs, two guys both with ERA’s under 3, and can go innings. It’s sad to look at how Jeff only has a 2-7 record, but that mostly reflects the Cubs’ offense, not his pitching. Samardzija, 29, has played his entire career with the Cubs so far, and the A’s have his rights until the end of the 2015 season. They only have Hammel, 31, for the rest of the season.

But this is a team who had only one flaw before this trade: if the rest of their pitching could potentially dwindle. They already are one of the best offensive threats in baseball, plus have the best team ERA in the AL. Sonny Gray has emerged as one of the best starters in baseball, while Scott Kazmir is having one incredible comeback season. After that, however, it comes down to Jesse Chavez and Tommy Milone. While both have ERA’s under 4, the question is if they can keep it up.

Now, you have a starting rotation with Gray, Samardzija, Kazmir, Hammel, and Chavez, with Milone as the 6^th man if you need him. That’s the best starting rotation in baseball, better than Detroit’s, Seattle’s, even St Louis with Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha. They are already 53-33 on the season, and can easily win 100 games now.

Just to be more clear on how good this new rotation is:

Gray: 3.08 ERA, 1.8 WAR, 3.29 FIP (fielded independent pitching), plus is only 24

Samardzija: 2.83 ERA, 1.9 WAR, 3.07 FIP

Kazmir: 2.61 ERA, 2.3 WAR, 3.42 FIP

Hammel: 2.98 ERA, 3.1 WAR, 3.16 FIP

Chavez: 3.23 ERA, 1.0 WAR, 3.51 FIP

So… yeah. It’ll be the best rotation Oakland has seen since the 2002 Moneyball era, when they had Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, and Mark Mulder. I keep bringing up how the A’s have a legitimate chance to get to the World Series for the first time since 1990, and now they are the clear cut favorites.

What all of this does mean is a rare move under general manager Billy Beane by giving up his top two prospects. Beane always likes to stack his prospects by keeping guys in the Major Leagues while still have some of the best guys come up. This year is different, though. All of them are going all-in this year, saying that they have what it takes to win it all.

But by doing that, they lost a future star in Addison Russell. I just ranked him 7th in my updated prospects list, and now he goes to a Cubs team that is stacked with prospects. The Cubs now have four guys in MLB.com’s top 15 prospects with Russell, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, and Albert Almora, plus three in my top 10.

The Cubs have been doing this ever since Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have become a dynamic duo. They have loaded their farm system by trading away expiring contracts to get some of the team’s best prospects, all with losing big time as a price. By adding Russell, however, they make the best farm system in the Major Leagues.

At only 20 years old, people are calling Russell a future superstar, and could be the Cubs best prospect even with Baez and Bryant. He’s a guy who can bat about .300 with 20 home runs and 80 RBI’s. Plus, he might be able to come up at the start of next year.

The Cubs also grabbed 25 year old Dan Straily, who has been on and off with the Majors and AAA this year. They also grabbed Billy McKinney, the A’s second best prospect, who is still young and room to improve, but has a lot of potential. Both of these guys aren’t just throw-ins, as they both can have a significant impact even in a couple years, but Russell is the eye of the prize. There's also a player-to-be-named later, but it shouldn't affect the deal significantly. 

If you are on the Cubs organization, you look at seeing what can you get out of Samardzija, and if you can get something great out of it, trade him away, but if you can’t, still try to resign him. That’s exactly what happened, and he’s gone now.

But a lot of Cub fans might be confused right now. Why would you get ANOTHER shortstop when you already have Starlin Castro in the Majors, plus have Baez in AAA? They now have three of the best young shortstops in baseball, and also great depth in the infield. But they didn’t get any big pitching prospect like they need, and now they are loaded with infielders. What are they doing?

This deal getting Russell means more symbolically for the Cubs too. It means that from here on out, it’s not going to be “trade expiring contracts for prospects and lose.” Instead, they are now loaded with many different people, and now can trade anybody for, say, an ace. Now, instead of continuing to rebuild, they are now moving to contend. With the emergence of Jake Arrieta in Chicago (more on him later), Epstein has a little more freedom to trade both pitchers.

The Cubs’ future lineup now looks like Russell at shortstop, Baez and third base, potentially Arismendy Alcantara from AAA at second, Bryant moving to right field, Almora in center, and either Jorge Soler or McKinney. That leaves only one player that’s currently on the Major League team, Anthony Rizzo (possibly catcher Wellington Castillo too).

Thus, expect the Cubs to trade one of their shortstops and move some of their infielders around in the minors. What will most likely happen is them trading away Castro for a future ace. I might be jumping a little, but they can potentially trade Castro for some random ace, then get David Price and Jon Lester in free agency in the offseason? We’ll just have to see.

The Oakland A’s won this trade, but that doesn’t mean that the Cubs aren’t in the right direction, either. They lost pitching rather than gained, but that might not be all that bad. As for Oakland, they might have lost their two best prospects, but as a result they gain two very good starters, and are my favorites to win the American League.