Which one of these teams can make a
wild card push? Who could win the division? And who will just miss October
baseball? Let’s look at the Power Rankings, ranking from 15-11.
15. Baltimore Orioles
2013 Record: 85-77
Despite a breakout year for Chris Davis
last season the Orioles went on a decline, finishing tied in third and twelve
games back from the division. Their biggest problem was pitching, giving up a
team 4.20 ERA and converting 57 of 84 opportunities. Converting 57 is still
fine but having 84 chances is not healthy for former closer Jim Johnson.
Best Player: Davis. He’ll be entering his age 28 season, so he’s
still in his prime. The monster clubbed 53
home runs and 138 RBI’s, batting
.286/.370/.634 and added 33 win shares on the year. If he keeps his average up,
he might just win the MVP award (as long as we don’t have another Cabrera-Trout
race again). I’ll play him conservatively, though, and have him bat around the
same with a lower OBP (.355, maybe?) and have him club 42 homers.
Who needs to step up: Wei-Yin Chen put up better numbers than most
people thought in 2013, yet he still had a 4.07 ERA with a .500 record in 23
starts. He needs to stay healthy so this pitching rotation does not collapse. I
can see his ERA going down to about 3.80, but that’s as far as I’ll go. They
need more pitching, but for now, Chen is one of their only options.
It was unfortunate to see Manny
Machado go down with an injury later in the season, and I hope that he can make
a steady recovery because he’s one of the best young players in the game. It’ll
be tough filling in his position at third base. Combined with the pitching and
the loss of Jim Johnson, I see a good offense but the same results.
Editor’s Note: I wrote this part of
the blog before the Orioles signed Ubaldo Jimenez and Sun-Mik Yoon to deals.
With those deals, the Orioles are still a good team, but Jimenez won’t just
automatically make them an all-star team.
Predicted 2014 Record: 85-77
14. Cleveland Indians
2013 Record: 92-70
The Tribe swooped into wild card
contention when they won 10 games in a row, marking one of the best September
records in history. Adding Terry Francona at the helm was a big help, but they
could not get past the Rays in the wild card game.
Best Player: It’s a close one. I’ll give it to Jason
Kipnis, because he is a speedy defensive second baseman who can still put up a
.350 OBP. You don’t see that often among second baseman. Nick Swisher and
Carlos Santana are also valuable players, but they need to hit for more contact
in order for them to be the best on the team.
Who needs to step up: With Ubaldo Jimenez gone, Justin Masterson is their go to guy in the rotation. I can see him being the only one in the rotation with an ERA under 4. The team also needs to score runs for him, and if they do, I can see him winning at best 15 games. I think he’s more likely to get 12 though.
Looking at the values, this team
does not look like a 92 win team. But they showed us wrong last time. It’ll be
interesting to see if they can make another run. I’m going to assume this year
though that they won’t have a 10 game winning streak to just sneak in.
2014 Prediction: 85-77
13. Kansas City Royals
2013 Record: 86-76
We saw the Royals break .500 for
the first time in forever, and saw some young and talented players make up a
good team. Losing Ervin Santana to free agency hurts, but does it hurt as much
as they think it will?
Best Player: Once again, it's tough to say. This is one of the most balanced
teams in baseball. Offensively they’re well-established, and defensively, they
are the best in baseball. The only other teams that I’d say are more balanced
are the Red Sox and the Cardinals, which, as you notice, won their pennants.
James Shields (yes, that James Shields) leads the pack in
starting pitching, as he could throw 200 innings with a 3.60 ERA. The team just
has to put up runs for him. Salvador Perez is one of the best catchers in the
game both defensively and offensively. He’s strong and well-built who can play
about 120 games per season. Eric Hosmer and Billy Butler also make a good 3-4
order, and Greg Holland was amazing in the closing role last season.
Who needs to step up: The team added 31 year old Jason Vargas to
replace Ervin Santana for 2014, and Vargas has a big hole to fill. Vargas went
9-8 with a 4.02 ERA in just 24 starts with the Angels last season, but we have
seen him put up better numbers. He’s got to pitch much better if the Royals
want to stay where they were last season.
I like the addition of Norichika
Aoki from the Brewers this offseason, as he can supply a fast lead-off man that
was an issue for the Royals in 2013. The offense looks really strong, but I
don’t think the pitching can compete for a wild card spot. They’re really
close, but they need a few more additions to convince me.
2014 Prediction: 86-76
12. New York Yankees
2013 Record: 85-77
Ah, the Yankees. The biggest
grabbers in this year’s offseason, the biggest question in baseball is whether
they can return to October. It’s Derek Jeter’s last year, so it wouldn’t be
baseball without New York getting in.
Adding Masahiro Tanaka, Jacoby
Ellsbury, Brian McCann, and Carlos Beltran, as well as getting Jeter back from
injury, they can contend. With the loss of Robinson Cano, though, it’s going to
be really hard.
Best Player: With Cano gone, you can argue that either one of the
key additions (Tanaka, Ellsbury, McCann) are the best players, as well as
saying Jeter historically, but I think Tanaka is more important to the team
than the rest (besides Jeter historically, of course). Adding Tanaka makes them
a contending team. Though C.C Sabathia is most likely still their ace, Tanaka
makes a complete rotation.
Who needs to step up: The offense replacing Cano, so Elsbury,
McCann, Beltran, and you can put in Jeter there too. Cano was their entire
offense last season, and I think few people realize that. Jeter, Mark Texiera,
A-Rod, and Curtis Granderson missed almost the entire season. Before adding
Alfonso Soriano before the trade deadline, they had one of the worst offensive
outfields, plus a lot of their positions ranked somewhere in between 25-30 in
the MLB based on position offensively, especially third base, which was dead
last for a good while in the season.
Here’s what their starting lineup
looks like for 2014:
1.
Jacoby Ellsbury
2.
Derek Jeter
3.
Carlos Beltran
4.
Mark Texiera (if he comes back from injury)
5.
Brian McCann
6.
Alfonso Soriano
7.
Brett Gardner
8.
Kelly Johnson
9.
Brian Roberts
If you gave me that lineup five
years ago, I would say that that would be the best lineup in baseball, without
a doubt (and no there’s no coincidence that the Yanks won five years ago). But
this isn’t five years ago, meaning that most of these guys are well past their
prime. I can see the offense reach in the middle of the pack this year, and
stay .500, but they will just miss the playoffs.
2014 Prediction: 86-76
11. Cincinnati Reds
2013 Record: 90-72
How do you have a team that wins 90
games in the 11 spot? Well, there’s a lot of competition, as 10 teams finished
with 90 or more games last season. That being said, I think Cincy will fail to
win 90 games this year, and there’s a few reasons for it. They have great
hitting and pitching, from good veterans like Joey Votto to super closer
Aroldis Chapman to Rickey Henderson-like Billy Hamilton making his rookie
season in 2014. But they did lose guys like Bronson Arroyo, Shin-Soo Choo, and
also fired manager Dusty Baker, who, as much as I hate to say it, is a
historically winning coach.
Best Player: Votto. Sure, you can say he’s not an MVP player
anymore, but he still put up the best OBP in the NL (.435), finishing with a
.305/.435//491 stance. Coming off an
injured season, it’s not the worse you can ask for. Plus, the guy is only 30
right now. He might not hit 30 home runs, but he can still hit well and play
pretty good defense. He’s still one of the best first baseman in the game.
Who needs to step up: Bryan Price, the new manager for the team.
He’s got a talented team with a good starting rotation, but he also has to fill
the shoes of Dusty Baker. As a first year manager, it’s going to be interesting
to see how he fills the roster. Same goes for the other new managers in
baseball, especially Brad Ausmus for the Detroit Tigers and Matt Williams for
the Washington Nationals, as they both have win-now teams. Price has an advantage, though: he was the former pitching coach for the Reds, so he knows the team inside and out already.
How will they replace Arroyo in the
rotation? What happens if Mat Latos stays injured? What’s the deal with Brandon
Phillips – is he staying or going? And will Billy Hamilton fulfill his role and
steal 100 bases? All questions to answer for the new skipper, and in a division
so tough, it might take him a year to figure it out.
2014 Prediction: 87-75
Notice that all five of these teams
still have roughly the same record. That’s what 2014 will be, and it will be
cool to have all of this different competition. The records are just
predictions, and the rankings are more important to notice (I believe the Reds
will have a higher chance to make an 87-75 record than the Orioles for
example).
We’re now at the top 10. Who’s the
best team in baseball? Who will take home the division title? Keep reading over
the week, and email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com
for any questions/comments/concerns.
-Evan Boyd
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