Congrats to the Seahawks on winning
their first ever Super Bowl, but now that football is over, it’s back to
baseball! Only four days until pitchers and catchers report, and Spring
Training is just weeks away.
But hold up. Despite only four days
until pitchers and catchers report, there are still plenty of free agents to
deal with. Here are the top five free agents that still can make a big impact
on a team:
Ervin Santana
Former Team: Kansas City Royals
Notable Stats: Had 23 quality
starts (9th in MLB), while posting a 3.24 ERA in 211 innings.
As of now, Ervin Santana is the
number one free agent out there. Despite me saying that, there are plenty of
flaws in his game.
At 30 years old, Santana posted his
best ERA stance at 3.24, but only went 9-10. Career wise, he’s been able to get
wins, like when he had 17 in 2010. Despite this, some of the statistics just
don’t add up.
In his nine-year career, he’s only
put up a total 15.7 WAR, which includes a 2.9 WAR last season and a -1.3 the
year before. His home run rates have always been absurdly high, like giving up
39 in 2012 and 26 in 2013. He averages giving up 29 home runs per season.
He’s not really a strikeout
pitcher, posting just a 3.16 K/BB ratio last season, and is very expensive
(wants a BIG contract).
With Masahiro Tanaka off the list
of free agents now, Santana seems like the best available. The Rockies,
Orioles, Mariners, Yankees, Dodgers, and Blue Jays are interested in him, with
the Blue Jays being the most serious contenders. Rumor has it that the Marlins
and Cubs have expressed interest, but not as serious.
Remember, adding Santana means that
a team would forfeit either a first round pick or an early second round pick.
That might rule out teams like the Cubs and Marlins, but I’d keep them on the
list still.
Don’t rule out the Royals, either.
Despite Santana asking for a whole bunch of money, Spring Training is
approaching, and they could easily re-sign him to a one-year deal. Without
Santana on the team, it would be much difficult for them to get in the same
position as they had last year.
My conclusion? He goes with one of
two teams: the Royals, or the Blue Jays. If he stays in Kansas City, it will be
a one-year, $13 million deal; if he goes to Toronto, they’ll lock him up for
four-years, and $50 million.
Nelson Cruz
Former Team: Texas Rangers
Notable Stats: Batted
.266/.327/.506 with 27 home runs and 76 RBI’s before being suspended 50 games
for PED use
Nelson Cruz is definitely the best
offensive player available, having hit 135 home runs and posting a
.272/.331/.511 slash line over the past five years. I think he’s the most
interesting player to watch right now, too. Per 162 games over those same five
years, Cruz has averaged 35 home runs and 106 RBI’s.
Despite being suspended 50 games
for PED use, Cruz hit 27 home runs, just six short of his career high-33. Hell,
he could have hit 40 if he was not suspended, but of course, that’s part of the
steroid use.
I think Nelson Cruz could fit
anywhere in a team’s system, but there are a few problems. First, of course, is
the whole steroid issue. How much do you sign a guy who just took PED’s and has
only played one game (the play-in to the wild card game) since July?
Also his age could hurt him. He’ll
be 33 for the 2014 season, so no team can risk keeping him until he’s in his
mid-to-late 30’s. He might not even have enough muscle to continue to play, as
he’s only had one season with 150+ games (2012).
Could he return to Texas? That’s
always a possibility, but after signing Shin-Soo Choo to a monster deal, the
Rangers might forgo that idea. The Orioles and the Tigers have also expressed
interest.
As of where they are in talks with
him, I’m not sure, but Cruz could be a perfect fit for the Seattle Mariners.
Yes, they already bought out Robinson Cano, but that’s the thing; adding Cano
gives you one good player and that’s it, but adding Cruz to accompany him gives
him someone to hit with, making a deadly middle of the order.
The Mariners cannot make the
playoffs with just Cano. Adding Cruz could make things a little bit different.
Stephen Drew
Former Team: Boston Red Sox
Notable Stats: Batted
.253/.333/.443 in 124 games with the Red Sox
Stephen Drew is such an interesting
player to look at. Drew put up a 3.1 WAR last season, which was higher than
both Santana and Cruz, costs much less money, yet no teams have been looking at
him. Why is this?
Drew puts up fine numbers as a
shortstop, and yes, just fine numbers. His defensive skills are just ok, and
right now shortstops are the hottest position in young talent. Plus, Drew put
up horrendous numbers in this postseason, and many Red Sox fans wanted him out
and benched.
Given all of that, the Red Sox
might just resign him. Yes, they do have Xander Bogaerts, their top prospect
who showed tremendous skill last season, but they might put Drew as a backup.
The two teams that were interested in him before were both New York teams, but
it looks like both of them have pulled out.
My thoughts? He resigns with the
Red Sox with a small one-year deal. Nothing special.
AJ Burnett
Former team: Pittsburgh Pirates
Notable stats: Posted a 3.30 ERA in
191 innings with a 1.7 WAR last season.
AJ Burnett turned around his career
with two fantastic seasons with the Pirates. The problem is, at such an old age
(will be 37 next season), and with an expensive contract, teams are starting to
judge whether it’s worth to tackle him.
The Pirates have not expressed any
interest in resigning him, and I’m pretty sure he wants to pitch for a
different team. But here’s something to watch out for: the Pirates have such an
amazing pitching organization that is able to turn these washed up guys into
something special. Can any other team do that?
I’d say yes, but not as good as a
3.30 ERA. According to Peter Gammons, the Orioles are “all in” on Burnett, and
the Rays have also expressed interest.
I think the Rays could be a good
fit for him, as they have a decent ballpark that he can pitch in with a good
pitching organization. As for Baltimore – it’s tough to tell. Baltimore needs
someone in the rotation, and after losing Jim Johnson, they need more bullpen.
Last season, they ranked 12th in the AL in rotation ERA and rotation
WAR.
If Burnett does go to the Rays,
watch the David Price trade talks skyrocket as well. Despite this, I think he
will be an Oriole next year.
Ubaldo Jimenez
Former Team: Cleveland Indians
Notable 2013 stats: went 13-9 with
a 3.30 ERA after going 9-17 with a 5.40 ERA in 2012
Jimenez is one of my favorites to
watch in this free agency because, at only age 30, he could make an ok impact
to any team in the long term. The problem with Jimenez is that he’s always on
and off with his pitching.
Remember that crazy year where he
went 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA, finishing 3rd in the Cy Young voting? In Colorado??
Since then, Jimenez has posted a combined 4.45 ERA.
Jimenez might be a little cheaper
than Ervin Santana and AJ Burnett, but whether they will get the same out of
him is the question. Lots of reports have favored the Blue Jays to sign him, with
the Yankees and Orioles in the mix.
Jimenez wants a 3-year, $39 million
deal. I bet you that the Blue Jays take him up on that offer, and sign him. The
Indians could always just sweep back in and sign him, but I don’t think they
will go $39 million for that.
Previous rumors also stated that
Jimenez might stay a year more in Cleveland in order to get an absurd deal
before the 2015 season. That might also happen, so watch out for Jimenez now
and in the future.
These are arguably the top five
players, but there is still Bronson Arroyo, Paul Maholm, Fernando Rodney,
Kendrys Morales, and Nate McLouth, plus plenty of other middle-of the order
hitters and 4th man pitchers.
Remember, signing one of these
players means that a team would have to forfeit their first or second round
draft picks, which many teams don’t want to do right now. Some of the big names
that have been in the late first round over the past five years? Try Mike
Trout, Michael Wacha, Sonny Gray, and Jose Fernandez. I’d rather take one of
them for sure.
Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any
questions/comments/concerns.
-Evan Boyd
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