Five Teams on the Rise

For the next week or so, I’ll be talking about these teams and some of their players. Some of these teams have yet to make any severe impact this season, while others are off to a hot start. Here are five teams that I think are on the rise for May and June, some teams that can take control of their division, some that can make a statement that they are really improving, and one team that might be able to prove that they are the best overall.

1.   St. Louis Cardinals: 20-20

This might seem like a surprise to some people of why the Cardinals have only a .500 record as of today, but two factors prevent them from going up. One of them is now their lack of hitting in scoring position. One of the reasons why I had them winning the NL pennant last year was because they hit an incredible .330 with RISP last season, which is something that hasn’t been done since the early 1970’s. They are now batting just .239 on the season with RISP.

To be fair, guys like Matt Holliday, Matt Carpenter, and Yadier Molina have been hitting over .300 still. Allen Craig, however, is batting only .212 with RISP after batting over .400 last season. Why is this change? There are too many factors to find a true answer to it.

One answer might be the fact that the team is still finding out “who  they are” as General Manager John Mozeliak put it. It’s a much different starting lineup than last year – no Carlos Beltran, David Freese, or Pete Kozma. Plus a lot of people are moving to different positions, so the only two players that remained in their place from last season are Holliday and Molina. This is something that every team finds out eventually, especially a team like the Cardinals.

Should Cardinal fans be worried? No. They are still in 2^nd place in the division anyways. With Jose Fernandez likely to be out for the season now (more on that below), Adam Wainwright has a great chance to win Cy Young this season. They’ve only had 14 home games so far this year, but they finish the month having  13 of 16 at home. The Cardinals will be in first place by the All-Star break.

2.   Boston Red Sox: 20-19

It’s a little surprising that the World Champs are in the same position as the Cardinals. But in the AL East, it’s still up for grabs for every team, as Baltimore leads the division with only a 20-18 record.

So far, they’ve been playing some great ball, and have lost some games that they should have won. But their hitting is starting to heat up. David Ortiz hit two home runs last night, the second time he’s done that already this season. He’s now batting .305 with a .992 OPS, and has hit 11 home runs while driving in 25.

Some things have still remained constant. Jon Lester leads the starters with a solid 2.75 ERA, and Koji Uehara is, while not as godly as last season, is still a solid closer.

What’s up? Why have they not gotten off to a hot start like last season? They had some injuries to start the season, like Shane Victorino, but he’s back and healthy. But this team can go cold and choke at clutch moments. They’ve been in 19 games where the difference is two runs or less, and have gone 10-9 in those games. They are batting just .243 with runners in scoring position (but hey that’s better than the Cardinals!).

Remember when they almost got no-hit by Yu Darvish? That was not fun to watch. The team that had arguably the best offense behind Detroit last season is now just in the middle of the pack. But here are some reasons why the Red Sox can get back up:

·         They can get on base. They always have been able to, but this season they have a team .338 on base percentage. Get that clutch hitting up and draw some walks, then the runs will start to come in.

·         Clay Buchholz has been nothing compared to his work last year. Felix Doubront finds himself in the same position as he was before. However, they have some options to deal with this. Some of their guys in the bullpen can go more than just an inning, like Chris Capuano.  Their two top prospects (now that Xander Bogaerts is in the MLB) are pitchers Henry Owens and Allen Webster, who, if they so choose, could come up in June.

·         A couple of home games are coming their way, and if the take it to their advantage, they will be in first place in what is now just an ok AL East.

Like the Cardinals, there should be no worries here. They have gone 7-3 in their past ten games, and will start to make their way up, so long as some pitching and hitting remains steady.

3.   San Diego Padres: 19-21

Color San Diego my dark horse, but I think they are a much better team that a team that’s two games under .500. They have won four in a row now, and so far Andrew Cashner and Huston Street have had their best seasons of their careers. Cashner is really starting to become a solid ace that could be a star in a few years.

The problem is hitting. Like the Marlins last year, they are dead last in every offensive category, including a depressing .222/.277/.343 batting average. Carlos Quentin is coming back from the DL now, so that does bring some power into their game. And yes, that Carlos Quentin, Dodger fans. 

Who needs to step up? Well arguably every starter minus Seth Smith, who has a very good .336/.422/.582 slash line. So far Yonder Alonso, Chase Headley, Will Venable, and Jedd Gyorko are batting under .200 (Headley is batting exactly .200). That can’t happen! Headley was third in the MVP voting a few years back, and Gyorko showed young talent last year.

It might just be me, but I don’t think this team will continue to bat as poor as they are now. I’m not saying that they will be the best hitting team in the west, but get their hitting up and there’s no doubt that they can pull an above .500 record. The fact that they are only 2 games under .500 and are the worst offensive team means that they are doing something right.

4.   LA Angels: 21-18

A couple of setbacks have put the Angels out of first place. First was the loss of Josh Hamilton, where it looked like he could actually have one of the best turnaround seasons in the past 25 years. Now Mike Trout is struggling in May, and his batting average has dipped below .300. But we know that will change.

Albert Pujols haters will hate, but he actually is providing good power to the team that needs it without Mike Trumbo or Hamilton. No he is not worth $240 million, but I blame the Angels for making such a lucrative contract than Pujols himself. He’s 34 and he is on track to hit at least 30 home runs this year and have close to a 5.0 WAR. Some teams would die for that!

What really is changing is the way they have been pitching. Trading Mark Trumbo might have been tough, but they got Tyler Skaggs, who was one of the most highly touted prospects a few years ago (and he’s still just 22!). Garrett Richards, Jered Weaver, and C.J Wilson have been solid starters to allow opponents to just a .228 average, which is the 3^rd best in the MLB.

I say this team is on the rise because they have the potential to win 90 games this year with decent enough pitching. It took three years to ride the Angels bandwagon, but now it might start its engines again.  

5.   Oakland Athletics: 25-16

That being said about the Angels, there is no way they can win the division the way the Athletics have been playing lately. It’s tough to hit home runs in Oakland, so what do they do? They draw walks and get some clutch hitting to drive in runs. Plus their pitching is stacked with one of my favorite players right now, Sonny Gray, as well as Scott Kazmir, who has done an incredible job in filling the role that Bartolo Colon did with the A’s.

So far, they are 2^nd in OBP, but also have a team ERA that’s the 3^rd best in the MLB (2.99), and have the best WHIP (1.11) and batting average allowed (.219). Plus they don’t have that one star player that costs a fortune. That’s how the Billy Beane system works, and man does it work in Oakland.

Every team should be afraid to face Oakland, because their ability to be so patient at the plate is staggering, averaging 3.91 pitches per plate appearance per at bat. Their OBP from the 7^th inning on is at .348, and .342 with runners in scoring position.

I watched them take apart both King Felix Hernandez and Yu Darvish, two players that might go 1-2 in the AL Cy Young voting this year. As one writer put it, Hernandez and Darvish were not having bad outings, but the A’s just had good plate appearances.

I put Oakland on this list not because I think they will rise in their division, as they already are in 1^st place, but I think they will be the best team in the AL by the end of the season. Detroit might have a better record, but Oakland might be the team you don’t want to play.

Shout outs to the LA Dodgers and the Washington Nationals as well, as they are beginning to rise as well. Tomorrow I will be looking at five teams on the decline. Don’t agree with my list? Email me at statsbuddy42@gmail.com for any questions/comments/concerns, I’d love any feedback.