Paul Goldschmidt Will Win NL MVP

The Arizona Diamondbacks are one of the worst teams in baseball this year. It’s mostly because of pitching, as towards the beginning of the year they had over a 7.00 team ERA, the league’s worst. They still have a team ERA of 4.84, which is now the second-worst in baseball. Hitting has been fine. But this was a pitching staff that almost allowed a three-run blast to Cubs pitcher Travis Wood, and he almost hit another one out in his next at-bat. 

The main reason why these guys are struggling is because of injuries, which is unfortunate. Patrick Corbin, who had a 14-win season last year at age 23, brought so much hope to this ball club. Some other injuries occurred before the start of the season, and suddenly projections for the D-Backs just dropped.

It always sucks when your team cannot compete just because they were injured all year. But if they lost Paul Goldschmidt to injury, they might as well just tank the season.

I projected Paul Goldschmidt to win the NL MVP award this season, after being the runner-up in 2013. What is going to hurt for him this season is how he is on one of the worst teams in baseball now.

At only 25 years old, Goldschmidt led the NL in home runs (36), RBI’s (125), slugging (.551), OPS and OPS+ (.952 and 161), as well as total bases (332) and intentional walks (19) in the 2013 season. He also finished with a 7.3 WAR.

In a little more than a month of baseball, Goldschmidt has played 37 games, had 166 plate appearances with 151 at bats, and has put up 52 hits, including 13 doubles. All of these stats lead the National League. He also has a 1.5 WAR to start off the season, which tied for 7^th best among position players in the NL. He holds a .344/.384/.570 line, and has hit 7 home runs while driving in 23.

Despite Troy Tulowitzki having the start of his career, and Giancarlo Stanton being on track to hit over 50 home runs, I think that Goldschmidt has a good shot at winning the MVP. Part of me relies that statement on the high probability that Tulowitzki and Stanton getting injured at some point this season (like they regularly do), and because Paul is a fantastic, consistent, and clutch player.

He’s what everybody wants in a first baseman. He’s got power, he can draw walks, he can hit with runners in scoring position, and he’s one of the best defensive first baseman in the game. He’s also being paid just over $1 million this season, so his Wins Above Salary is much higher.

His strikeout rate is a bit high, as he has struck out 33 times already, almost once per game. But while a 3.0 K/BB ratio is high for the start of the season, he has shown that he can get on base, so that stat might have to be played out for us to tell. He can also steal relatively well, and has averaged about 17 steals over the past three seasons.

Right now, he is on track to hit over 50 doubles and hit almost 40 home runs, which is mind boggling! The last person to hit over 50 doubles and have at least 35 home runs was Alex Rodriguez when he was just 20 years old in 1996 (A-Rod finished with 54 doubles and 36 home runs that season, finishing 2^nd in the MVP race). He would finish with another 30-100 HR-RBI season at least, which is still quite an accomplishment.

The guy can do anything, whether it is a walk off home run, a diving stop at first, or stealing 2^nd to put himself in scoring position. He can do things that first baseman wish they could do. Despite playing on a team that might lose 100 games this year already, they would be out of the water already if they lost him. That’s why Paul Goldschmidt is the perfect first baseman, and this year will be his first MVP trophy. It will probably be the first of many as well.