Jeff Samardzija - Stay or Go?

Jeff Samardzija has been the best pitcher in the National League so far. And yes, I say that even with competitors like Adam Wainwright and Johnny Cueto. Samardzija won’t win the NL Cy Young though, I bet Wainwright will. Why won’t he win it? Well, he needs to win first.

That’s right. The pitcher with the best ERA (1.46), tied for best in WAR among pitchers (2.7), best in ERA+ by a longshot (266, Mark Buehrle and Cueto are tied in 2^nd with 198), and number one in all of the adjustment pitching (that is, adjusted pitching runs and adjusted pitching wins), probably will end up 3^rd or 4^th in the voting. That is, if he keeps it up like this AND (more importantly) he stays with the Cubs.

Samardzija has yet to get a win this season. He is 0-4 thus far, but do not judge him based on his record. Twice has his games been blown by relievers, and the offense has given him only 2 runs per game, the 2^nd worst in the MLB. On one day where the Cubs’ offense blew up for 17 runs, pitcher Travis Wood literally apologized to Jeff, and wished that he could give some of those runs to him.

As bad as the Cubs relieving system has been over the past five years, however, the middle relievers and closer Hector Rondon have been good up to yesterday, where they blew a 2-run lead and a Samardzija win. Much of the struggles come from the offense. It’s weird – though the Cubs do have a bad offense, they can throw up 5 or 6 runs a game at times, but NEVER for Samardzjia. He has not one a game since last July, and it’s been 15 straight decisions where he has yet to get a win.

Note: That’s what’s exciting about the Cub prospects coming up, like Javier Baez and Kris Bryant. The “big four” as they call it in their minor league system, are all hitters. In fact, there’s little pitching in the minor league system, and they might have to resort to the best hitter in the upcoming 2014 First Year Player’s Draft (more on that later). But the problem isn’t pitching, it’s hitting. They have decent enough pitching to make it to the playoffs. As for relieving, well…

That’s why Jeff Samardzija is such a valuable asset to this ballclub. He’s 29 years old, and while for most players he’s towards exiting his prime, Jeff is actually just entering it. He didn’t pitch in college – he played football at Notre Dame (in fact, he was the best wide receiver on that offense behind Brady Quinn). So instead of wasting some arm then, his arm feels like he’s 25 or 26.

He is becoming an ace and a very good pitcher, having a consistent fastball that can hit 95 in the 7^th inning, and a slider with great control. The only problem is that the Cubs offense always sucks when he is pitching!

So as the Cubs are still yet to become contenders, and probably won’t become a serious one until 2016, Jeff is trade bait with an expiring contract. If he goes to the market, he will be the best pitcher for the market and can be the answer to a contending team.

If I were Jeff, I would want out of Chicago. Yes, he loves Chicago, and he’s been great for the city and the Midwest, but losing is very frustrating. One of the big responses to Jeff in staying was if the Cubs could sign someone big in the offseason like Masahiro Tanaka, but that obviously failed.

If I was Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, I would do anything to get Samardzija to stay. The problem is money, of course. This past offseason, Homer Bailey signed an extension worth over $100 million, and Jeff is going to want even more because guys like Bailey can get big extensions. But it might be worth it, as he’s right now the best pitcher in the National League (or at least the most underrated).

Five teams that have become interested in Jeff are the Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Braves, and Rangers. All of these teams have good ties with the Cubs organization, especially under the Epstein era. If Samardzija goes, they need to get something HUGE out of it. The Blue Jays have some pitching talent in Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman, so do the Red Sox in Henry Owens (pictured right) and Allen Webster. The Braves have some but not enough for just prospects, and the Rangers and Yankees have no young talent to offer anymore.

So if they had to trade Samardzija, they would have to get someone BIG, and they would need to be an official starter by the start of the 2015 season.

It’s a tough year for everyone that has some relationship with the Cubs, and it’s been a tough road to rebuilding. If they keep Samardzija, the rebuilding period ends quicker. If they trade him away, they add another year into the rebuilding period. I don’t know if Cub fans have another rebuilding year in them, but if it means more winning in the future, then so be it.